Oil price uncertainty and manufacturing production

Aye, Goodness C.; Dadam, Vincent; Gupta, Rangan; Mamba, Bonginkosi

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2014.02.004

Cited by 73 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…While this is likely to be a more serious concern for developing countries with lesser ability to engage in efficient monetary and fiscal policies and other means of preventing adverse effects on the structure of industry, Dissou (2010) has shown that it also is a common result in developed countries like Canada. Aye et al (2014), among many others, have shown that adverse effects on tradable goods can occur even if the country is an exporter, not of oil, but rather of minerals and other primary products which could have similar effects on the real exchange rate.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Management of Oil Revenues: Has That of Azerbaijan Been Prudent?

2017

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Abstract:To help explain the common failure of oil or other natural resource exporting countries to diversify into industry, it has been common to trace this failure to real exchange rate appreciation. This has also been done in Azerbaijan. However, because Azerbaijan has devoted so much of its oil revenues to government investment, Azerbaijan provides a suitable case for examining an alternative link through government investment. This study applies the ARDL cointegration method to quarterly time series data on oil prices, government capital formation, non-oil exports and non-oil GDP to estimate the long run relationships linking oil prices to government investment expenditures and further to generation of non-oil GDP. The results show that despite the massive government investment expenditures, extremely little non-oil production of the tradable type has been generated, calling attention to the need for policy reform.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Management of Oil Revenues: Has That of Azerbaijan Been Prudent?

2017

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“…Nkomo, , ; Swanepoel, ; Chisadza et al ., ; Gupta and Modise, ; Aye et al . among others). However, none of these studies analysed the effect of oil price volatility except Aye et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…Aye et al . () examined the volatility of oil prices and its effects on the manufacturing sector in South Africa. This is the first paper to account for in particular the volatility of oil prices in South Africa.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Oil price uncertainty and savings in South Africa

Dave

Aye

2015

OPEC Energy Review

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Oil prices have become increasingly important to determine indicators such as inflation; this in turn affects savings and investments. This paper investigates the impact of the volatility of oil prices on savings in South Africa using quarterly data covering the period 1960 to 2014.The study used the GARCH-in-mean VAR model. This model also provides a way of examining the effect of a negative and positive shock in oil prices on savings. The outcome of this study proves that oil price uncertainty which is measured as the conditional standard deviation of a one-step-ahead forecast error of the change in oil price affects South Africa's savings in a negative way. The responses of savings to a positive and negative oil price shocks is symmetric in both direction and magnitude.

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“…This finding is also supported by Hooker [29], who argued that oil price changes significantly caused US inflation and productivity, and Hamilton [30], who analyzed the impact of oil price changes on US macroeconomic components during 2007 to 2008. In particular, Aye et al [31] analyzed the effect of oil price changes on manufacturing production in South Africa. The analysis results suggested that oil price changes significantly and negatively impact South Africa's manufacturing production and that manufacturing production responded asymmetrically to increasing and decreasing oil price changes.…”

Section: Determinant Of Environmental Productivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Baseline analysis of productivity changes with and without considering carbon dioxide emissions in the major manufacturing sector of Indonesia

Armundito

Kaneko

2015

Economic Structures

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This paper provides empirical evidence of changes in the productivities of manufacturing firms in Indonesia over time, in the form of total factor productivity (TFP), from 1990 to 2010 with and without considering carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Employing cleaned and balanced panel datasets for four periods, the analysis enables an evaluation of the impact of implemented policies or economic circumstances during each period. The Malmquist productivity index is employed to estimate TFP without CO 2 emissions over time, whereas the Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index is applied to estimate TFP with CO 2 emissions over time. Furthermore, the influence of energy factors on environmental productivity is also investigated. The results show that on average, TFP with CO 2 emissions over time has grown faster than TFP without CO 2 emissions, particularly for periods 1, 2, and 4. Technical progress is the basis of productivity growth after removing energy subsidies, and the change in environmental productivity is associated with the adjusted energy prices. Constructive policy designs can be derived from this paper that will enhance manufacturing sector performance after changes in the prices of oil commodities.

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Oil price uncertainty and manufacturing production

Cited by 73 publications

References 32 publications

Management of Oil Revenues: Has That of Azerbaijan Been Prudent?

Management of Oil Revenues: Has That of Azerbaijan Been Prudent?

Oil price uncertainty and savings in South Africa

Baseline analysis of productivity changes with and without considering carbon dioxide emissions in the major manufacturing sector of Indonesia

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