Oil shocks and the U.S. economy in a data-rich model

De, Kuhelika; Compton, Ryan A.; Giedeman, Daniel C.

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105755

Cited by 14 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…5770-5782). In addition, the factors of Russia's war against Ukraine and the rapid rise in crude oil prices have driven up the prices of housing, food and energy (De et al, 2022). At present, the high price of international commodities has promoted global inflation, and the risk of inflation also threatens the stable development of the global economy.…”

Section: The Discussion About Inflation In the United Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of inflation from 1906 to 2022: a comprehensive analysis of inflation studies from a global perspective

Wang¹,

Zhang²,

Wang

et al. 2022

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Research background: Inflation has always been the core issue of economic research and there are many academic research achievements in this field. In recent years, global inflation has intensified, and many scholars focus on research in this field again, providing certain reference value for countries around the world to formulate corresponding macro policies. Purpose of the article: The five-year impact factors are used as the evaluation criteria in this paper, and 1,637 high-quality documents on inflation from 1906 to 2022 are collected from the Web of Science Core Collection database. Using bibliometrics, a comprehensive review of influential literature in the field of inflation is conducted to reveal the evolution and trends of the field. Methods: First, we focus on these high-quality documents about the descriptive statistical characteristics, high cited documents and high impact factor journals. Then, based on the visualization tool, the cooperative network of countries/regions, authors and institutions is depicted and the cooperative relationship between them is determined. At the same time, the most influential countries/regions, authors and institutions are identified by analyzing the citation structure. In addition, through thematic and keyword analysis, the topic hotspots and future research trends of high-quality literature in the field of inflation are deduced. Findings & value added: On the whole, the research on inflation in the United States is relatively mature, and has produced a large number of influential academic cooperation results. Finally, we have a series of discussions on the history of inflation in the United States and policy suggestions. In the future, governments of various countries, especially the United States, will still face certain challenges in how to formulate policies and measures to mitigate the impact of inflation.

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Section: The Discussion About Inflation In the United Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of inflation from 1906 to 2022: a comprehensive analysis of inflation studies from a global perspective

Wang¹,

Zhang²,

Wang

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Beka (2014) also notes the multiple effects of oil price shocks should be explained through the nature of shocks, the transmission mechanism of shocks or the structure of energy flows. Some international scholars have included different sources of oil price shocks in their studies, suggesting that these sources may determine the response of the economy to oil price fluctuations (De et al , 2022; Malik and Umar, 2019; Lorusso and Pieroni, 2018; Zhao et al , 2016; Badel and McGillicuddy, 2015; Cashin et al , 2014; Ahmed and Wadud, 2011). To the best of the author’s knowledge, only Pham and Sala (2020) followed the approach proposed by Kilian (2009) in their analysis of the Vietnamese economy but remained some errors, as mentioned.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…By using a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) model, Aastveit (2014) indicated that the recessions in the USA were driven mainly by oil demand shocks, while oil supply shocks accounted only for a small fraction of the variation in real oil prices. In spite of the same approach as Aastveit (2014), a recent study conducted by De et al (2022) indicated that both demand- and supply-driven oil price shocks led to a significant increase in the global crude oil price and a high degree of pass-through to the US consumption and production. De et al (2022) found contrary responses of the US economic activity to increases in the oil price triggered by oil supply shocks and oil demand shocks: while oil price increases associated with supply-side shocks lowered the US economic activity, those triggered by oil demand shocks promoted the US economy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Macroeconomic effects of demand and supply shocks in the global oil price on the Vietnamese economy

Duong¹

2023

IJESM

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of several structural shocks in oil prices on the Vietnamese economy and answer three key research questions: Is there a relationship between oil price shocks and macroeconomic indicators in Vietnam? How do different types of oil price impulses affect Vietnamese inflation and economic performance? To what extent do structural shocks in oil prices explain variations in Vietnam’s macroeconomic indicators? Design/methodology/approach Lower triangular Cholesky decomposition is performed on a short-term impact matrix in a two-block structural vector autoregressive model. The data set is defined monthly, from January 2000 to December 2021. The contributions of structural shocks in oil prices to the domestic variances are analysed using variance decomposition methods. In this study, both forecast error variance decomposition and historical decomposition are used. Findings The consequences of oil price fluctuations on Vietnamese output and inflation depend on different sources of oil price shocks. In comparison, oil supply shocks have an insignificant effect on both domestic industrial output and consumer price index inflation; however, positive shocks in aggregate and precautionary oil demands increase these domestic indicators substantially and sustainably. An analysis of variance decompositions reveals that supply-side oil shocks have very limited explanatory power for variations in domestic variables. Nevertheless, the contributions of unanticipated demand-side booms to domestic variations in the past and projected forecasts are considerable. Research limitations/implications The findings from this research uncover potential risks for Vietnam’s economic prospects if the consequences of oil price shocks are not managed effectively. Originality/value Given the lack of economic sensitivity to supply-side oil shocks and the strong response to shifts in oil demands, greater pressure on the domestic economy is likely when Vietnam increases its dependence on oil imports.

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“…Monetary policy is another relevant tool available to the policymaker to alleviate the economic impact of energy shocks (Bernanke et al, 1997;Binder, 2018). De et al (2022) study the effects of three types of oil shocks on the US economy from 1978 to 2017, finding that monetary authorities tightened monetary policy to mitigate the inflationary pressure of unanticipated oil demand shocks. However, Pindyck (1980) states that the complete accommodation of the indirect costs might not always be the most optimal answer.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy Price Shocks and Stabilization Policies in a Multi-Agent Macroeconomic Model for the Euro Area

et al. 2022

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Oil shocks and the U.S. economy in a data-rich model

Cited by 14 publications

References 42 publications

A review of inflation from 1906 to 2022: a comprehensive analysis of inflation studies from a global perspective

A review of inflation from 1906 to 2022: a comprehensive analysis of inflation studies from a global perspective

Macroeconomic effects of demand and supply shocks in the global oil price on the Vietnamese economy

Energy Price Shocks and Stabilization Policies in a Multi-Agent Macroeconomic Model for the Euro Area

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