Old, not yet rich? The impact of population aging on export upgrading in developing countries

Wu, Feifei; Yang, Hongna; Bo, Gao; Gu, Yan

doi:10.1016/j.chieco.2021.101707

Cited by 23 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…In the new macroeconomic environment, the acceleration of population aging further aggravates the labor shortage, thus, the traditional comparative advantage of labor-intensive industries is lost increasingly rapidly [ 54 , 55 ]. Moreover, climbing to higher value-added links and establishing new comparative advantages suffers from “low-end locking”, and being “captured”, mainly because of the interference of global value chain governance in the international division of labor and trade guided by developed countries [ 56 , 57 , 58 , 59 , 60 ], thereby weakening external demand for industrial structure upgrading.…”

Section: Research Hypothesis and Theoretical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

How Population Aging Affects Industrial Structure Upgrading: Evidence from China

Shen

Jing-bo

Cao

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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The question of how to proactively respond to population aging has become a major global issue. As a country with the largest elderly population in the world, China suffers a stronger shock from population aging, which makes it more urgent to transform its industrial and economic development model. Concretely, in the context of the new macroeconomic environment that has undergone profound changes, the shock of population aging makes the traditional industrial structure upgrading model (driven by large-scale factor inputs, imitation innovation and low-cost technological progress, and strong external demand) more unsustainable, and China has an urgent need to transform it to a more sustainable one. Only with an in-depth analysis of the influence mechanism of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure can we better promote industrial structure upgrading under the impact of population aging. Therefore, six MSVAR models were constructed from each environmental perspective based on data from 1987 to 2021. The probabilities of regime transition figures show that the influencing mechanisms have a clear two-regime feature from any view; specifically, the omnidirectional environmental transition occurs in 2019. A further impulse–response analysis shows that, comparatively speaking, under the new environment regime the acceleration of population aging (1) aggravates the labor shortage, thus narrowing the industrial structure upgrading ranges; (2) has a negative, rather than positive, impact on the capital stock, but leads to a cumulative increase in industrial structure upgrading; (3) forces weaker technological progress, but further leads to a stronger impact on the industrial structure upgrading; (4) forces greater consumption upgrading, which further weakens industrial structure upgrading; (5) narrows rather than expands the upgrading of investment and industrial structures; and (6) narrows the upgrading of export and industrial structures. Therefore, we should collaboratively promote industrial structure upgrading from the supply side relying heavily on independent innovation and talent, and the demand side relying heavily on the upgrading of domestic consumption and exports.

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Section: Research Hypothesis and Theoretical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

How Population Aging Affects Industrial Structure Upgrading: Evidence from China

Shen

Jing-bo

Cao

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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“…Fukumoto and Kinugasa (2017) show that age structure is an important determinant of the level of openness of economies to trade, with working-age groups positively impacting openness, while old and young dependents have a negative relationship. Wu et al (2021) suggest that population aging in developing countries hinders the process of export upgrading through reductions in innovation and human capital as costly pensions crowd out public expenditure on education and investment. This mechanism does not appear to be prominent in advanced economies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Growing older and growing apart? Population age structure and trade

Kopecky

2023

JES

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PurposeThis paper explores the empirical relationship between population age structure and bilateral trade.Design/methodology/approachThe author includes age structure in both log and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) formulations of the gravity equation of trade. The author studies relative age effects, using differences in the demographic structure of each country-pair.FindingsThe author finds that a relatively larger share of population in working age increases bilateral exports. This is robust to various estimation models, as well as to changes in the method of specifying the demographic controls. Old-age shares have a negative, but less robustly estimated impact on trade. Estimating instead the balance of trade between trading partners produces similar results, with positive effects of age structure peaking later in working life.Practical implicationsGlobal populations are poised to undergo a massive transition. Trade a crucial way that the demographic deficits of one country may be offset by the dividends of another as comparative advantages shift along with the size and strength of their underlying workforce.Originality/valueThe author’s work is among the first to quantify the effect of relative age structure between two countries and their bilateral trade flows. Focusing on the aggregate flows, relative age shares and PPML estimates of the trade relationship, this paper provides the most comprehensive picture to date on how age structure affects trade.

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“… 1 To address this situation, China has introduced a series of policies in recent years, including measures such as allowing families to have three children, strengthening regulations on the education and training industry, and curbing the excessive rise of housing prices. 2 , 3 However, these measures require time to fully ascertain their effects, and the aging of China’s population shows no sign of slowing down, so the question of how to actively deal with the negative effects of aging in society is a top priority. 3 In the modern work environment, in addition to addressing the aging of employees, attention needs to be focused on the use of information technology (IT) in the workplace.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… 2 , 3 However, these measures require time to fully ascertain their effects, and the aging of China’s population shows no sign of slowing down, so the question of how to actively deal with the negative effects of aging in society is a top priority. 3 In the modern work environment, in addition to addressing the aging of employees, attention needs to be focused on the use of information technology (IT) in the workplace. 4 Recently, an increasing amount of information technology has become commonplace in the workplace, including technology such as DingTalk, WeChat, and intelligent information software related to the professional content of work at the office.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Moderating Effects of Self-Efficacy and Time Pressure on the Relationship Between Employee Aging and Work Performance

Li¹,

Liu²,

Zhang³

et al. 2022

PRBM

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Purpose The relationships among employee aging, working memory capacity, and task performance in the context of information technology were studied, and these investigations in turn provide insight into improving employee task performance and mitigating the negative effects of employee aging. Participants and Methods Based on the limited resource theory and the inhibitory deficit theory, a total of 296 valid questionnaires were collected and the relationships among the variables were examined using cascaded linear regression via SPSS 22.0. Results Aging negatively affects working memory capacity and task performance. Working memory capacity partially mediates the relationship between age and task performance. Time pressure can exacerbate the negative effects of age on task performance, and self-efficacy mitigates the negative effects of age on task performance. Discussion Employee information system learning and training can be enhanced to ameliorate the negative impact of aging on task performance. IT-related work can be limited to a manageable level to reduce the negative effects of reduced working memory capacity. Employees’ internal motivation can be gradually cultivated, and employees can be guided toward the improvement of their IT self-efficacy.

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Old, not yet rich? The impact of population aging on export upgrading in developing countries

Cited by 23 publications

References 49 publications

How Population Aging Affects Industrial Structure Upgrading: Evidence from China

How Population Aging Affects Industrial Structure Upgrading: Evidence from China

Growing older and growing apart? Population age structure and trade

Moderating Effects of Self-Efficacy and Time Pressure on the Relationship Between Employee Aging and Work Performance

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