Olive trees as bio‐indicators of climate evolution in the Mediterranean Basin

Abstract

Aim This paper aims to project areas of olive cultivation into future scenarios. Accordingly, we first asked the question whether global circulation models (GCMs) are able to reproduce past climatic conditions and we used historical ranges of olive cultivation as a palaeoclimate proxy.Location The Mediterranean basin. MethodsWe used an ecological model, calibrated and validated for modern times, to test the reliability of a general circulation model (NCAR-CSM GCM) in reproducing past ranges of olive tree cultivation inferred from the literature, archaeo-botanical investigations and fossil pollen analyses. ResultsThe re-constructions of olive growing areas, obtained for the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 1200-1300 AD) and the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1600-1700 AD) by coupling the outputs of NCAR-CSM to the ecological model, were in agreement to those observed. Simulations of olive growing areas for future time-windows showed that a northwards expansion of the species is expected to occur by 2100. Main conclusionsThese results demonstrate that the NCAR-CSM can provide an accurate reconstruction of past climate with results sensitive to climate forcing factors and thus, it is more likely to give reliable projections for the future. Additionally, the warming and drying conditions expected in the coming decades may determine changes across the Mediterranean basin that is unprecedented.

The Effects of Climate Change on the Development of Tree Plantations for Biodiesel Production in China

“…The northwest shift found in this study was in agreement with the general observation that distributions of plant species would shift towards the poles under global warming [48,49]. Our results were similar to findings of several studies on the effects of climate change on distribution of woody oil plants, such as Sapium sebiferum in the United States [50], Olea europaea L. in the Mediterranean basin [51,52], and Hevea brasiliensis (Willd. ex A.…”

The Representativeness of Olea Pollen from Olive Groves and the Late Holocene Landscape Reconstruction in Central Mediterranean

“…europaea, respectively) that have quite similar pollen morphology (Roselli, 1979;Ribeiro et al, 2012;Messora et al, 2017). Another problem arises from the fact that O. europaea is an evergreen xerophilous tree, whose growth is promoted by a warming climate (Moriondo et al, 2013). Recent studies have demonstrated that a seasonal analysis is required to establish robust relationships between the Mediterranean climate and olive development (Aguilera et al, 2015); therefore, an increasing trend in the pollen curves may have ambiguous significance in the diagrams from the Mediterranean Holocene records.…”

Forecasting olive crop yields based on long-term aerobiological data series and bioclimatic conditions for the southern Iberian Peninsula

“…Under the context of climate change, the fundamental vegetative and reproductive phases of numerous plant species, such as the olive tree, might have serious problems in their adaptation to the new scenarios (Moriondo et al, 2013;Orlandi et al, 2014). The processes of pollination, fruit setting, and fruit maturation might be negatively affected, which are aspects to highlight, given the socio-economical importance of olive groves and their products for countries in the Mediterranean region.…”

“…However, the effects of climate change on the Mediterranean olive-growing areas might depend on how these changes in temperature and rainfall patterns occur. In this way, a recent study discussed how some typical areas of olive cultivation might be particularly sensitive to projected climate change, and above all, the southern Mediterranean areas, which might become unsuitable for olive cultivation (Moriondo et al, 2013). As changes in climate can cause serious imbalances to physiological and biological rhythms of natural and cultivated plant species, models that predict phenological stages can be used to study the responses of plant life-cycle to global warming (Chuine et al, 1999;García-Mozo et al, 2008;Orlandi et al, 2014).…”