Omicron Spread in Vaccinated Jurisdictions: a Statistical Study

Abstract

A correlation hypothesis between the level of vaccination and the rate of spread of the new Covid-19 variant is investigated based on the case and vaccination data from European and North American jurisdictions available in the public domain at the time point of past the crest of the Omicron wave in most jurisdictions. Statistical variables describing the rate of the spread based on observed new case statistics defined and discussed. An unexpected moderate positive correlation between the rate of the variant spread measured by two related parameters and vaccination level based on the dataset in the study is reported. While negative correlation was not statistically excluded, the analysis of the data in the study statistically excluded a moderate to strong negative correlation. The results of this work, if confirmed by further independent studies can have implications for development of policies aimed at controlling future course of the Covid-19 pandemic.