On distribution of the leadership time in counting votes and predicting winners

Stępniak, Czesław

doi:10.1016/j.spl.2015.06.028

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Towards Distribution Of the First Leadership Time1

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2018

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“…Some results on this distribution were derived in Stępniak (2015) under silent assumption that M > 0. We shall prove the following Theorem 1 For all M = 0, 1, ..., N−1 2 distribution P M (T = n) of the first leadership time T is given by…”

Section: Towards Distribution Of the First Leadership Timementioning

confidence: 99%

On a Surprising Result of Two-Candidate Election Forecast Based on the First Leadership Time

Stępniak

2018

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This is a simple but provocative note. Consider an election with two candidates and suppose that candidate A was the leader until counting n votes. How to use this information in predicting the final results of the election? According to the common belief the final number of votes for the leader should be a strictly increasing function of n. Assuming the votes are counted in random order we derive the Maximum Likelihood predictor of the final number of votes for the future winner and loser based on the first leadership time. It appears that this time has little effect on the predicting.

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Section: Towards Distribution Of the First Leadership Timementioning

confidence: 99%

On a Surprising Result of Two-Candidate Election Forecast Based on the First Leadership Time

Stępniak

2018

Statistics in Transition New Series

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

On distribution of the leadership time in counting votes and predicting winners

Cited by 1 publication

References 15 publications

On a Surprising Result of Two-Candidate Election Forecast Based on the First Leadership Time

On a Surprising Result of Two-Candidate Election Forecast Based on the First Leadership Time

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