On ENSO impacts on European wintertime rainfalls and their modulation by the NAO and the Pacific multi‐decadal variability described through the PDO index

Zanchettin, Davide; Franks, Stewart W.; Traverso, Pietro; Tomasino, Mario

doi:10.1002/joc.1601

Cited by 83 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…As stated before, some authors have attributed this changing impact to the influence on the atmospheric mean state of well-known multidecadal SST modes such as the AMO and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO, [20,136]). This seems to be crucial for those regions where the skill of seasonal forecasting systems is still poor, as is the case of Europe and the Mediterranean region.…”

Section: Impact Of Enso On Anomalous Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 91%

A Review of ENSO Influence on the North Atlantic. A Non-Stationary Signal

et al. 2016

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Abstract:The atmospheric seasonal cycle of the North Atlantic region is dominated by meridional movements of the circulation systems: from the tropics, where the West African Monsoon and extreme tropical weather events take place, to the extratropics, where the circulation is dominated by seasonal changes in the jetstream and extratropical cyclones. Climate variability over the North Atlantic is controlled by various mechanisms. Atmospheric internal variability plays a crucial role in the mid-latitudes. However, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still the main source of predictability in this region situated far away from the Pacific. Although the ENSO influence over tropical and extra-tropical areas is related to different physical mechanisms, in both regions this teleconnection seems to be non-stationary in time and modulated by multidecadal changes of the mean flow. Nowadays, long observational records (greater than 100 years) and modeling projects (e.g., CMIP) permit detecting non-stationarities in the influence of ENSO over the Atlantic basin, and further analyzing its potential mechanisms. The present article reviews the ENSO influence over the Atlantic region, paying special attention to the stability of this teleconnection over time and the possible modulators. Evidence is given that the ENSO-Atlantic teleconnection is weak over the North Atlantic. In this regard, the multidecadal ocean variability seems to modulate the presence of teleconnections, which can lead to important impacts of ENSO and to open windows of opportunity for seasonal predictability.

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Section: Impact Of Enso On Anomalous Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 91%

A Review of ENSO Influence on the North Atlantic. A Non-Stationary Signal

et al. 2016

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“…The PDO is defined by Mantua et al (1997) and Zhang et al (1997) as the leading principal component of the monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variability poleward of 20°N after removal of global mean SST. The PDO has generally been linked to climate changes around the Pacific basin (Mantua and Hare, 2002), but (Zanchettin et al, 2008) have argued that the influence of ENSO on European climate is generally more pronounced during positive phases of PDO, thus we will consider its potential role on the records of Croatian climate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…ENSO's influence in Europe generally, and perhaps the Mediterranean also, is more pronounced when the PDO (Zanchettin et al, 2008) is in a positive phase. As an example of this variable connection between ENSO and Mediterranean climate, Broennimann (2007) showed that the El Niño events of 1941-1942 and 1983 are associated with fairly different responses as seen in winter precipitation throughout this region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of regional and global climatic oscillations on Croatian climate

Bice¹,

Montanari²,

Vučetić³

et al. 2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:We apply spectral analysis and sliding window correlations to monthly, seasonal, and annual climatological data from station records throughout Croatia going back to 1859 in order to investigate the potential influences of a set of important climatic drivers, including solar variability, and ocean-atmosphere oscillations in both the Pacific realm (El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO) and the Atlantic realm (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO and North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO). In addition to a general long-term warming and drying, there are significant interannual to decadal scale variations. Positive phases of AMO correspond to higher Croatian temperatures and also times of greater interannual temperature variability. Higher frequency variations in NAO are positively correlated with temperature such that a negative phase of NAO is associated with lower Croatian temperatures. The strength of NAO's influence is modulated by the long-term cycles of AMO; stronger during positive decadal-scale phases of AMO. ENSO exerts a weaker influence on temperatures, and is only significant during positive phases of the PDO. NAO has a strong influence on Croatian winter precipitation, with negative NAO phases corresponding to higher precipitation, modulated by the longer term phases of AMO. Although weaker and less consistent, ENSO also influences Croatian winter precipitation, modulated by longer term cycles of the PDO. Both NAO and ENSO show signs of frequency-dependent correlation; NAO is influential at cycles of 8-9 and 2.4 yr in the Adriatic-Dinaric part of Croatia, while ENSO is especially influential at a 3.6 yr cycle in the Pannonian region. The influence of solar variability is apparently much weaker than that of NAO and ENSO, yet there is a remarkably coherent correlation between amplitude modulation of winter precipitation in the Pannonian region and the sunspot record.

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“…negative phase) in both hemispheres of the Pacific Ocean (Folland, 2002) and are known to influence climate patterns around the world (e.g. Kiem et al, 2003;Kiem and Franks, 2004;Verdon et al, 2004;Zanchettin et al, 2008). Importantly the IPO/PDO has been found to be a dominant climate mode in the Pacific sector since at least the 15th Century (Verdon and Franks, 2006) and is therefore likely to continue to influence climate in the future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

Verdon‐Kidd

Kiem

2009

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a clear distinction between wet and dry synoptic types at each station. The influence of large-scale climate modes on the frequency and timing of the regional synoptic patterns is also investigated. This analysis revealed that phase changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and/or the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are associated with a shift in the relative frequency of wet and dry synoptic types on an annual to interannual timescale. In addition, the relative frequency of synoptic types is shown to vary on a multi-decadal timescale, associated with changes in the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Importantly, these results highlight the potential to utilise the link between the regional synoptic patterns derived in this study and large-scale climate modes to improve rainfall forecasting for Victoria, both in the short-(i.e. seasonal) and long-term (i.e. decadal/multi-decadal scale). In addition, the regional and large-scale climate drivers identified in this study provide a benchmark by which the performance of Global Climate Models (GCMs) may be assessed.

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On ENSO impacts on European wintertime rainfalls and their modulation by the NAO and the Pacific multi‐decadal variability described through the PDO index

Cited by 83 publications

References 52 publications

A Review of ENSO Influence on the North Atlantic. A Non-Stationary Signal

A Review of ENSO Influence on the North Atlantic. A Non-Stationary Signal

The influence of regional and global climatic oscillations on Croatian climate

On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

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