On Future Population

Keyfitz, Nathan

doi:10.2307/2284381

Cited by 47 publications

(21 citation statements)

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“…This means it is harder to accurately estimate the components of change for these areas (Ballas, Rossiter, Thomas, Clarke, & Dorling, 2005;Cameron & Poot, 2011;Keyfitz, 1972;Lutz, 2009). Additionally, the geographical aspect is much more significant on a local level, where the available space for new housings units is often limited (more so than on the regional level) since many contextual variables can strongly affect population growth (Ballas, Rossiter, et al, 2005).…”

Section: Challenges Of Small Area Population Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing the impact of urban planning on population distribution in the Montreal metropolitan area using a small-area microsimulation projection model

Marois

Bélanger

2015

Popul Environ

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Section: Challenges Of Small Area Population Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing the impact of urban planning on population distribution in the Montreal metropolitan area using a small-area microsimulation projection model

Marois

Bélanger

2015

Popul Environ

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“…One of these 'stress-reduction' strategies is to use the term 'projection' in place of 'forecast'. Keyfitz (1972) and Pittenger (1978) point out that demographers prefer to make 'projections' while the user audience wants 'forecasts'. Smith & Bayya (1992: 4) note, in this regard: 'Historically, demographers have preferred to make population projections rather than forecasts.…”

Section: Forecasting and Job-related Stressmentioning

confidence: 99%

Between a rock and a hard place: The evaluation of demographic forecasts

Swanson

Tayman

1995

Popul Res Policy Rev

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“…Planners can answer this question in many ways, depending on what assumptions they are willing to make. Keyfitz (1972) offers a catalog of the available techniques.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They could be meant to illustrate and compare the results of various policies, or to warn policy makers about the consequences of current trends . But Keyfitz (1972) …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Accuracy of Population Projections

Stoto

1983

Journal of the American Statistical Association

149

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FOREWORDAlthough population studies are key elements of many planning and policy studies, they are inherently inaccurate. This report attempts to measure the inaccuracy through a comparison of past projections with the actual population figures. The aim of this historical study is not to criticize or applaud the quality of previous demographic predictions, but rather to provide confidence intervals for projections made today. This should allow planners to use projections more objectively by providing a range of reasonable possibilities rather than a single estimate. ANDRZEJ WIERZBICKI Chairman System and Decision Sciences ProgramThe Accuracy of Population Projections MICHAEL A. STOTO* Population projections are key elements of many planning and policy studies but are inherently inaccurate. This study of past population projection errors provides a means for constructing confidence intervals for future projections. We first define a statistic to measure projection errors independently of the size of the population and the length of the projection period. A sample of U.S. Census Bureau and United Nations projections indicates that the distributions of components of the error statistic are relatively stable. We then use this information to construct confidence intervals for the total population of the United States through the year 2000. We find that for projections of total population size, simple projection techniques are more accurate than more complex techniques.

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On Future Population

Cited by 47 publications

References 20 publications

Analyzing the impact of urban planning on population distribution in the Montreal metropolitan area using a small-area microsimulation projection model

Analyzing the impact of urban planning on population distribution in the Montreal metropolitan area using a small-area microsimulation projection model

Between a rock and a hard place: The evaluation of demographic forecasts

The Accuracy of Population Projections

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