This paper proposes a semianalytical performance prediction method for an iterative receiver that processes signals arriving through a frequency-selective multiple-input multipleoutput radio channel. Earlier results provide a distribution of the signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio at the output of a frequency domain soft interference cancellation minimum mean square error equalizer, which is used to approximate the distribution of the log-likelihood ratios (LLRs) of the demapped bits. Mutual information transfer charts establish a bijective relationship between the variance of the LLRs and the mutual information. We assume a 3rd Generation Partnership Project compliant turbo code, whose transfer charts are simulated in advance. By approximating the LLR variance distribution of the demapped equalizer output, we can evaluate the probability of an intersection between an equalizer chart associated with a random channel realization and a fixed decoder chart. This probability provides the frame error rate. Our proposed prediction method allows horizontally and vertically encoded spatial multiplexing schemes. The vertically encoded scheme is complemented by the inclusion of the Chase combining hybrid automatic repeat request protocol. The proposed method allows reasonable receive antenna correlation.Index Terms-Extrinsic information transfer (EXIT) chart analysis, frequency-domain equalization, iterative processing, minimum mean square error, multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) channels.