On regional dynamical downscaling for the assessment and projection of temperature and precipitation extremes across Tasmania, Australia

White, Christopher J.; McInnes, Kathleen L.; Cechet, R. P.; Corney, Stuart; Grose, Michael; Holz, Greg; Katzfey, Jack; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.

doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1718-8

Cited by 48 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Previous studies have attempted to obtain high‐resolution regional climate simulations and future projections over Canada through RCMs (Plummer et al ., ; Sushama et al ., ; Mladjic et al ., ; Jeong et al ., , ). Through nesting RCMs into General Circulation Models (GCMs), improved simulation of GCMs can be achieved and projections for temperature and precipitation variables can be generated at finer spatial scales (Lavender and Walsh, ; White et al ., ; Wang et al ., ). For instance, Jeong et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

PRECIS‐projected increases in temperature and precipitation over Canada

Zhou

Huang

Baetz

et al. 2018

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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In this study, high-resolution projections of temperature and precipitation changes over Canada were developed through the Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies (PRECIS) model under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). In detail, the PRECIS model was employed to conduct simulations for the historical period over the entirety of Canada, driven by the boundary conditions from both ERA-Interim (1979-2011) and HadGEM2-ES (1959-2005). The performance of PRECIS simulations in reproducing historical climatology of Canada was then validated through comparison with observed temperature and precipitation over the baseline period (1986-2005). The boundary conditions from HadGEM2-ES under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 was used to drive PRECIS for simulating climatic variables over Canada for the period of 2006-2099. Future climate projections of temperature and precipitation as well as their extreme indices over two time-slices (i.e . 2046-2065 and 2076-2095) were extracted and analysed. The results could help investigate how the regional climate over Canada will respond to global warming as well as the spatio-temporal characteristics of plausible climate changes in the Canadian context. The validation results demonstrate that the PRECIS model is effective in reproducing the historical climatological patterns of annual mean temperature and total precipitation across Canada. Projections of temperature and precipitation for the two future periods indicate that there will be an apparent increasing pattern over Canada. The projected changes derived in this study can provide decision-makers with valuable information to evaluate possible impacts on economic, social and environmental sectors at regional and local scales.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

PRECIS‐projected increases in temperature and precipitation over Canada

Zhou

Huang

Baetz

et al. 2018

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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“…RCMs are developed using the same laws of physics as described in GCMs to account for the sub‐GCM grid‐scale processes with more details (such as mountain ranges, coastal zones, and details of soil properties) in a physically based way (Feser et al , 2011). Nesting RCMs into GCMs can lead to improved simulation of the general circulation and thus can provide projections for a variety of climate variables at fine spatial scales (Zhang et al , 2006; Lavender and Walsh, 2011; White et al , 2013; Wang et al , 2014). The major challenge to the dynamical technique is that RCM simulations can be computationally expensive in practice, depending on the domain size, spatial resolution, as well as the simulation length.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High‐resolution temperature and precipitation projections over Ontario, Canada: a coupled dynamical‐statistical approach

Wang

Huang

Lin

et al. 2014

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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We develop a dynamical–statistical downscaling approach by coupling the PRECIS regional modelling system and a statistical method—SCADS—to construct very high resolution climate projections for studying climate change impacts at local scales. The coupled approach performs very well in hindcasting the mean temperature of present‐day climate, while the performance for precipitation is relatively poor due to its high spatial variability and nonlinear nature but its spatial patterns are well captured. We then apply the coupled approach for projecting the future climate over the province of Ontario, Canada at a fine resolution of 10 km. The results show that there would be a significant warming trend throughout this century for the entire province while less precipitation is projected for most of the selected weather stations. The projections also demonstrate apparent spatial variability in the amount of precipitation but no noticeable changes are found in the spatial patterns.

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“…As a result of limited resolutions, global climate models (GCMs) are generally not quite capable of representing extreme precipitation events well. White et al [2013] stated that relying solely on low-resolution GCMs to assess extreme precipitation changes over relatively small area like Tasmania in Australia is difficult. Wehner et al [2010] suggested that increasing the horizontal resolution could improve simulation of extremes.…”

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confidence: 99%

Dynamical downscaling simulation and future projection of precipitation over China

2015

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This study assesses present-day and future precipitation changes over China by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.5.1. The WRF model was driven by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with the Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics component (GFDL-ESM2G) output over China at the resolution of 30 km for the present day and near future (2031)(2032)(2033)(2034)(2035)(2036)(2037)(2038)(2039)(2040)(2041)(2042)(2043)(2044)(2045)(2046)(2047)(2048)(2049)(2050) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. The results demonstrate that with improved resolution and better representation of finer-scale physical process, dynamical downscaling adds value to the regional precipitation simulation. WRF downscaling generally simulates more reliable spatial distributions of total precipitation and extreme precipitation in China with higher spatial pattern correlations and closer magnitude. It is able to successfully eliminate the artificial precipitation maximum area simulated by GFDL-ESM2G over the west of the Sichuan Basin, along the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau in both summer and winter. Besides, the regional annual cycle and frequencies of precipitation intensity are also well depicted by WRF. In the future projections, under the RCP4.5 scenario, both models project that summer precipitation over most parts of China will increase, especially in western and northern China, and that precipitation over some southern regions is projected to decrease. The projected increase of future extreme precipitation makes great contributions to the total precipitation increase. In southern regions, the projected larger extreme precipitation amounts accompanied with fewer extreme precipitation frequencies suggest that future daily extreme precipitation intensity is likely to increase in these regions.

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On regional dynamical downscaling for the assessment and projection of temperature and precipitation extremes across Tasmania, Australia

Cited by 48 publications

References 45 publications

PRECIS‐projected increases in temperature and precipitation over Canada

PRECIS‐projected increases in temperature and precipitation over Canada

High‐resolution temperature and precipitation projections over Ontario, Canada: a coupled dynamical‐statistical approach

Dynamical downscaling simulation and future projection of precipitation over China

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