On Revolutionary Waves and the Dynamics of Landslides

Abstract

This paper argues that revolutionary waves and social movements share similar dynamics to sand sliding down the edges of a pile. On this basis, the paper develops a theoretical model in which contention arises endogenously through discontent and social imitation as the social system self‐organizes into a state of criticality over time. Revolts and collective actions are thus understood as subsequent reorganizing cascades once the system has reached such a critical state. Although taken by themselves the properties and timings of these cascades are entirely chaotic, at the aggregate level the cascades’ properties follow regularities that are impervious to the individual characteristics of individuals but are affected by the intrinsic structure of social networks.