On some fundamental methodological aspects in foresight processes

Michael, Lauster,; Hansen-Casteel, Stephanie

doi:10.1186/s40309-018-0140-1

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Further, we believe that this is the first mapping review that aims to discover foresight and HS methods for MedTech innovations to support decision-making. The analysis of objectives, methods and sources together may contribute to answer some of the epistemological questions around which foresight method to use to detect future MedTech development relevant to healthcare decision-makers 9 73. This review has some limitations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Looking at the fringes of MedTech innovation: a mapping review of horizon scanning and foresight methods

Garcia Gonzalez-Moral,

Beyer,

Oyewole

et al. 2023

BMJ Open

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ObjectivesHorizon scanning (HS) is a method used to examine signs of change and may be used in foresight practice. HS methods used for the identification of innovative medicinal products cannot be applied in medical technologies (MedTech) due to differences in development and regulatory processes. The aim of this study is to identify HS and other methodologies used for MedTech foresight in support to healthcare decision-making.MethodA mapping review was performed. We searched bibliographical databases including MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, IEEE Xplore and Compendex Engineering Village and grey literature sources such as Google, CORE database and the International HTA database. Our searches identified 8888 records. After de-duplication, and manual and automated title, abstracts and full-text screening, 49 papers met the inclusion criteria and were data extracted.ResultsTwenty-five single different methods were identified, often used in combination; of these, only three were novel (appearing only once in the literature). Text mining or artificial intelligence solutions appear as early as 2012, often practised in patent and social media sources. The time horizon used in scanning was not often justified. Some studies regarded experts both as a source and as a method. Literature searching remains one of the most used methods for innovation identification. HS methods were vaguely reported, but often involved consulting with experts and stakeholders.ConclusionHeterogeneous methodologies, sources and time horizons are used for HS and foresight of MedTech innovation with little or no justification provided for their use. This review revealed an array of known methods being used in combination to overcome the limitations posed by single methods. The review also revealed inconsistency in methods reporting, with a lack of any consensus regarding best practice. Greater transparency in methods reporting and consistency in methods use would contribute to increased output quality to support informed timely decision-making.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Looking at the fringes of MedTech innovation: a mapping review of horizon scanning and foresight methods

Garcia Gonzalez-Moral,

Beyer,

Oyewole

et al. 2023

BMJ Open

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“…Looking forward in time is a more complex challenge. With regard to foresight methodologies, there is no definitive answer to the question as to which foresight methods are best suited to create an epistemological foresight model on potential future developments based on today's state of knowledge [16]. A well-established foresight methodology is the scenario technique, which is generally based on a system analysis, the consideration of multiple future factor projects and their consistent combinations [17][18][19].…”

Section: B System Analysis To Predict Innovation In 2030mentioning

confidence: 99%

Back to the Future: Scoping Dynamics in Industrial Innovation

Bauer

Schimpf

2020

IEEE Eng. Manag. Rev.

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Many companies and regions in Europe consider innovation to be their key competitive advantage. To enable these actors to successfully incorporate innovation into their strategic planning, this article seeks to scope dynamics of industrial innovation by analysing historical developments and forecasting future trends. The insight into historical developments provides the basis for learnings and a deeper understanding of the dynamics of industrial innovation. The forecast of industrial innovation in 2030 creates a framework to discuss future orientation and positioning. Historical developments are regrouped according to five key action fields of R&D and innovation management in accordance to the action fields of industrial companies. The foresight process was carried out based on a reduced and adapted version of the scenario technique, starting bottom-up with the descriptors of innovation systems and resulting in five theses on how innovation will look like in 2030. Both perspectives are combined to reach conclusions on anticipated transformative aspects in industrial innovation systems and discuss potential consistencies, repetitions and interruptions between historical and future dynamics.

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