On the allegations that small risks are treated out of proportion to their importance

Abstract

a b s t r a c tMany authors argue that we suffer from a lack of ability to treat small risks; we either ignore them completely or give them too much emphasis. An example often referred to is terrorism risk, the reference being the number of fatalities observed due to terror compared to for example deaths in traffic accidents. The thesis is that the risk is over-estimated. However, these assertions, that the risks are over-estimated and we give them too much emphasis -they are treated out of proportion to their importance -cannot be justified in any scientifically meaningful way when there are large uncertainties about the consequences of the activity considered. Over-estimation is a value judgment, as is the phrase "far too much emphasis". In the paper the author argues that the statements represent some serious misconceptions about risk. The purpose of the present paper is to point to these misconceptions and provide some guidance on how they can be rectified.

The COVID-19 pandemic: how can risk science help?

“…Risk science also explains that lay people's risk perception is not only about feelings. It can also capture conscious judgements of uncertainties (Aven 2015(Aven , 2018b. History has shown many examples of this, where highly relevant uncertainties were ignored by the professional risk judgements but included in lay people's risk appraisals (for example, in relation to nuclear risk).…”

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“…What is the reference for comparison when faced with situations like this characterized by large uncertainties? This issue is interesting from a risk science foundation point of view and has been discussed recently in several publications (e.g., Aven, 2015Aven, , 2018c. Seeing uncertainty as a key component of risk (see Section 3), it is not sufficient to use historical data as a reference for what is the "real risk."…”

Managing Risk Through Marine Spatial Planning

“…Veland, H., & Aven, T. (2015). Improving the Risk Assessments of Critical Operations to Better Reflect Uncertainties and the Unforeseen.…”

“…Few conceptually appreciate the likelihood aspect of the consequence in terms of the meaning of risk (Slovic 1986). Even though a given consequence is highly unlikely, people generally focus on the severity of the consequences of risk as the basis to drive policy decisions (Aven 2015;Leung et al 2016). The most obvious example are public debates on the risk of accidents in nuclear power plants and the risks associated with the storage of nuclear waste, which focus mostly on the sheer magnitude of impacts of any risk event independent of its likelihood.…”