On the anti-correlation between COVID-19 infection rate and natural UV light in the UK

Abstract

While it is well established that the rate of COVID-19 infections can be suppressed by social distancing, environmental effects may also affect the infection rate. Here we consider the hypothesis that natural Ultra-Violet (UV) light (UVA and UVB) is reducing COVID-19 infections by enhancing human immunity through vitamin-D and/or by suppressing the virus itself. We focus on the United Kingdom (UK), by examining daily COVID-19 infections (F) and UV Index (UVI) data over the period March to October 2020. We find an intriguing empirical anti-correlation between log10(F) and log10(UVI) with a correlation coefficient of -0.933 over the period from 11 May (when the first UK lockdown ended) to 28 October 2020. The anti-correlation may reflect causation with other factors which are correlated with the UVI. Either way, UVI should be included in modelling the pattern of COVID-19 infections and deaths. We started quantifying such correlations in other countries and regions.

Solar UV-B/A radiation is highly effective in inactivating SARS-CoV-2

“…Yet, the available data on SARS-CoV-2 contagions show indisputably that the ongoing pandemic has a lower impact during summer time and in countries with a high solar illumination (e.g. 15,19,20,22,24,[47][48][49] ). This suggests that UV-B/A Solar photons may play a role in the evolution of this pandemic, perhaps in combination with more subtle, and related, indirect factors such as temperature and humidity.…”

“…In particular, about 10% of the photons emitted by the Sun in the range 290-315 nm (UV-B) and as much as 95% of those in the range 315-400 nm (UV-A), reach the Earth. The effect of these photons on Single-and Double-Stranded RNA/ DNA viruses [10][11][12][13] and the possible role they play on the seasonality of epidemics [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25] , are nevertheless little studied and highly debated in alternative or complementarity to other environmental causes 23,[26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39] . Notably though, the effects of both direct and indirect radiation from the Sun needs to be considered in order to completely explain the effects of UV radiations in life processes (with e.g.…”

Solar UV–B/A Radiation is Highly Effective in Inactivating SARS-CoV-2

“…Yet, the available data on SARS-CoV-2 contagions show indisputably that the ongoing pandemic has a lower impact during summer time and in countries with a high solar illumination (e.g. [15,19,20,22,24,[47][48][49]). This suggests that UV-B/A Solar photons may play a role in the evolution of this pandemic, perhaps in combination with more subtle, and related, indirect factors such as temperature and humidity.…”

“…In particular, about 10% of the photons emitted by the Sun in the range 290-315 nm (UV-B) and as much as 95% of those in the range 315-400 nm (UV-A), reach the Earth. The effect of these photons on Single-and Double-Stranded RNA/DNA viruses [10][11][12][13] and the possible role they play on the seasonality of epidemics [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25], are nevertheless little studied and highly debated in alternative or complementarity to other environmental causes [23,[26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39]. Notably though, the effects of both direct and indirect radiation from the Sun needs to be considered in order to completely explain the effects of UV radiations in life processes (with e.g.…”