On the Application of Multidimensional Statistical Procedures in the Analysis of the Prospects for Cooperation between the EAEU and ASEAN

Abstract

This study discusses the results of using multidimensional statistical procedures in the analysis of development prospects and the state of regional integration of the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in the horizon of 2030.Aim. Determine the development prospects and effectiveness of regional organizations, ASEAN and EAEU, as of 2030.Tasks. To identify the current trend in the development of the processes of regional cooperation and integration of the ASEAN countries and the EAEU countries, to determine and predict the state of the processes of regional cooperation and integration of the discussed regional associations in the context of the types and scenarios for the development of regional organizations proposed by the Eurasian Development Bank.Methods. The study used the work of the Eurasian Development Bank, the Regional Integration Database (RIDB), the open data of the World Bank, and the data of the ASEAN statistical portal. The research methodology was based on the assumption that, based on multivariate statistical procedures, it is possible to establish a different in time, the position of a regional organization in its relatively homogeneous group. The group (cluster) was taken (taken) in accordance with a typology provided by the Center for Integration Studies of the Eurasian Development Bank. The construction of time series models was carried out in accordance with the ARIMA methodology.Results. With the help of cluster analysis, similarities and differences were determined in relation to the distance of the object under study to the center of a homogeneous reference group. Thus, it was possible to establish the position of regional international organizations, ASEAN and EAEU, differing in time in their relatively homogeneous group. In addition, the processes of regional cooperation and integration are non-linear and non-unidirectional, accompanied byboth convergence and divergence.Conclusion. With regard to ASEAN, the possibility of reducing its effectiveness as a regional organization in the perspective of 2030 has been established, this situation is explained by the implementation of the hedging policy by the key actors in the region in the context of the growing competition between the United States and China.With regard to the EAEU, it has been established that the organization in the horizon of 2030 has significant opportunities for its development as an active organization in the post-Soviet space. However, such a prospect will depend on timely actions of the Russian Federation that meet the challenges and threats of sanctions pressure.

Study of Convergence and Divergence of EAEU Integration Processes Based on the Gini Index

“…β-конвергенция предполагает наличие эффекта низкой базы, когда государства с низкими доходами растут быстрее, а σ-конвергенция опирается на сокращение стандартного отклонения анализируемых показателей [4]. А. М. Титович и А. В. Торопыгин используют, например, методы многомерного статистического анализа -методы временных рядов ARIMA и кластерный анализ [8]. Общим эмпирическим выводом работ является выявление периодов чередования конвергенции и дивергенции участников интеграции, в первом случае на постсоветском пространстве, во втором -на примере ЕАЭС и АСЕАН.…”