On the application of the window of opportunity and complex network to risk analysis of process plants operations during a pandemic

Abstract

To quantify the pandemic specific impact with respect to the risk related to the chemical industry, a novel risk analysis method is proposed. The method includes three parts. Firstly, the two types of “window of opportunity” (WO) theory is proposed to divide an accident life cycle into two parts. Then, a qualitative risk analysis is conducted based on WO theory to determine possible risk factors, evolution paths and consequences. The third part is a quantitative risk analysis based on a complex network model, integrating two types of WO. The Fuzzy set theory is introduced to calculate the failure probabilities of risk factors and the concept of risk entropy is used to represent the uncertainty. Then the Dijkstra algorithm is used to calculate the shortest path and the corresponding probability of the accident. The proposed method is applied to the SCR denitrition liquid ammonia storage and transportation system. The results show that it is a comprehensive method of quantitative risk analysis and it is applicable to risk analysis during the pandemic.

Industrial construction safety policies and practices with cost impacts in a COVID-19 pandemic environment: A Louisiana DOW case study

“…Over the course of several decades the process industry has seen catastrophic accidents such as personnel poisoning, vapor cloud explosions, and flash fires occur ( Sun et al, 2020b ). Under normal environments these are challenging and require extensive attention to detail to overcome windows of opportunity, which can best be described as a gap or failure in process safety in which a catastrophic event can occur ( Sun et al, 2020b ). Under COVID-19, the lack of trained process safety human resources increased the windows of opportunity in 2020 ( Sun et al, 2020b ).…”

“…Under normal environments these are challenging and require extensive attention to detail to overcome windows of opportunity, which can best be described as a gap or failure in process safety in which a catastrophic event can occur ( Sun et al, 2020b ). Under COVID-19, the lack of trained process safety human resources increased the windows of opportunity in 2020 ( Sun et al, 2020b ).…”

“… Sun et al (2020b) discussed the shortage of human resources as a risk to process safety, concluding that human resource shortages create a challenging environment with additional risk for error in process safety due to limited staff. Identified risk factors such as lack of resources, prolonged wearing of masks, high work stress, and additional unscheduled work hours due to resource shortages increased the probability of an incident as a result of an operational error in the process safety procedure implementation process ( Sun et al, 2020b ). The wearing of face masks or face shields that constantly fog up has been shown to restrict visual inspections and requires additional time to clear process lines and to ensure their safety.…”

Resilience-based approach to safety barrier performance assessment in process facilities

“…Many accidents occurred in the process industry, including personnel poisoning, fire, and explosion (Sun et al, 2020). Loss of containment is the root cause of these accidents.…”

Special issue: Process safety in times of a pandemic

“…To quantify the pandemic-specific impact with respect to the risk related to the chemical industry ( Sun et al, 2020 ), propose a novel risk analysis method, based on joining the “window of opportunity” theory to qualitative and quantitative risk analysis.…”