On the Bayesian approach to neutrino mass ordering

Blennow, Mattias

doi:10.1007/jhep01(2014)139

Cited by 25 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…We will follow a Bayesian approach to model comparison (see previous work suggesting the Bayesian method as the most suited one for the mass ordering extraction in Refs. [294] and [295]) 19 , which makes use of the Bayesian evidence Z. This quantity, which is also known as the marginal likelihood, is defined as the integral over the entire parameter space Ω M of the prior π(θ) ≡ p(θ|M) times the likelihood L(θ) ≡ p(d|θ, M), where θ is the set of parameters that describe the model M and d represents the available data:…”

Section: A Bayesian Model Comparisonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Neutrino Mass Ordering from Oscillations and Beyond: 2018 Status and Future Prospects

Salas

Gariazzo

Mena

et al. 2018

Front. Astron. Space Sci.

194

197

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The ordering of the neutrino masses is a crucial input for a deep understanding of flavor physics, and its determination may provide the key to establish the relationship among the lepton masses and mixings and their analogous properties in the quark sector. The extraction of the neutrino mass ordering is a data-driven field expected to evolve very rapidly in the next decade. In this review, we both analyze the present status and describe the physics of subsequent prospects. Firstly, the different current available tools to measure the neutrino mass ordering are described. Namely, reactor, long-baseline (accelerator and atmospheric) neutrino beams, laboratory searches for beta and neutrinoless double beta decays and observations of the cosmic background radiation and the large scale structure of the universe are carefully reviewed. Secondly, the results from an up-to-date comprehensive global fit are reported: the Bayesian analysis to the 2018 publicly available oscillation and cosmological data sets provides strong evidence for the normal neutrino mass ordering versus the inverted scenario, with a significance of 3.5 standard deviations. This preference for the normal neutrino mass ordering is mostly due to neutrino oscillation measurements. Finally, we shall also emphasize the future perspectives for unveiling the neutrino mass ordering. In this regard, apart from describing the expectations from the aforementioned probes, we also focus on those arising from alternative and novel methods, as 21 cm cosmology, core-collapse supernova neutrinos and the direct detection of relic neutrinos.10 Here, σ 8 corresponds to the normalization of the matter power spectrum on scales of 8h −1 Mpc, see Equation (13). 11 The thermal SZ thermal effect consists on a spectral distortion on CMB photons which arrive along the line of sight of a cluster.

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Section: A Bayesian Model Comparisonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Neutrino Mass Ordering from Oscillations and Beyond: 2018 Status and Future Prospects

Salas

Gariazzo

Mena

et al. 2018

Front. Astron. Space Sci.

194

197

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Note that as long as only Σ is the dominating observable, it will never be possible to reject NO. We will use Bayesian statistics, following closely [18]. Similar methods have been used in [19] in the context of the mass ordering in cosmology.…”

Section: Quantifying the Evidence Against Inverted Orderingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[6] formulated in terms of frequentist hypothesis testing, or ref. [18] using Bayesian reasoning. Indeed, just from the numbers in eq.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cosmology and the neutrino mass ordering

Hannestad

Schwetz

2016

J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys.

106

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We propose a simple method to quantify a possible exclusion of the inverted neutrino mass ordering from cosmological bounds on the sum of the neutrino masses. The method is based on Bayesian inference and allows for a calculation of the posterior odds of normal versus inverted ordering. We apply the method for a specific set of current data from Planck CMB data and large-scale structure surveys, providing an upper bound on the sum of neutrino masses of 0.14 eV at 95% CL. With this analysis we obtain posterior odds for normal versus inverted ordering of about 2:1. If cosmological data is combined with data from oscillation experiments the odds reduce to about 3:2. For an exclusion of the inverted ordering from cosmology at more than 95% CL, an accuracy of better than 0.02 eV is needed for the sum. We demonstrate that such a value could be reached with planned observations of large scale structure by analysing artificial mock data for a EUCLID-like survey.

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“…Here we just use the Asimov data set [82] corresponding to the so-called "average experiment" [83]. The statistical interpretation for such a discrete bi-value fit of mass hierarchy can be found in [84][85][86][87][88] which is a function of the χ 2 function minimum, ∆χ 2 MH . To see the effect of each procedure discussed in previous sections, we show the results step by step.…”

Section: Sensitivity To the Neutrino Mass Hierarchymentioning

confidence: 99%

Physics reach of atmospheric neutrino measurements at PINGU

Hagiwara

2014

J. High Energ. Phys.

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The sensitivity of a huge underground water/ice Cherenkov detector, such as PINGU in IceCube, to the neutrino mass hierarchy, the atmospheric mixing angle and its octant, is studied in detail. Based on the event rate decomposition in the propagation basis, we illustrate the smearing effects from the neutrino scattering, the visible energy and zenith angle reconstruction procedures, the energy and angular resolutions, and the muon misidentification rate, as well as the impacts of systematic errors in the detector resolutions, the muon mis-identification rate, and the overall normalization. The sensitivity, especially the mass hierarchy sensitivity, can be enhanced by splitting the muon-like events into two channels, according to the event inelasticity. We also show that including the cascade events can improve and stabilize the sensitivity of the measurements.

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On the Bayesian approach to neutrino mass ordering

Cited by 25 publications

References 68 publications

Neutrino Mass Ordering from Oscillations and Beyond: 2018 Status and Future Prospects

Neutrino Mass Ordering from Oscillations and Beyond: 2018 Status and Future Prospects

Cosmology and the neutrino mass ordering

Physics reach of atmospheric neutrino measurements at PINGU

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