On the Driving Factors of the Future Changes in the Wintertime Northern‐Hemisphere Atmospheric Waviness

Abstract

Despite the significant socioeconomic implications in the link between atmospheric waviness and extreme weather events, future atmospheric waviness trends remain elusive due to uncertainties arising from diverse definitions and insufficient dynamical formalism in existing metrics. This study employs a local wave activity (LWA) metric, whose prognostic equation links wave activity changes to forcing mechanisms, to assess wintertime Northern Hemisphere waviness in ERA5 and HighResMIP data sets. The models generally exhibit high fidelity in reproducing observed waviness, while biases stem primarily from biases in the LWA source, low‐level meridional heat flux, which tend to improve with higher resolutions. Future projections exhibit reduction in LWA, primarily due to suppressed LWA generation, which is mitigated by higher‐resolution models. We found that both biases and reduction of the LWA source are closely associated with sensible heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere, highlighting the potential impacts of resolving ocean currents.