On the Dynamics of the Seasonal Components of Induced Seismicity in the Koyna–Warna Region, Western India

Смирнов, В. Б.; Михайлов, В. О.; Пономарев, А. В.; Arora, Kusumita; Chadha, R. K.; Srinagesh, D.; Potanina, M. G.

doi:10.1134/s1069351318040109

Cited by 10 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…For seasonal periods, evidence of seismicity triggered by hydrologically-driven seasonal stress cycles are reported in Japan (Heki, 2003;Ueda and Kato, 2019), the Himalayas (Bollinger et al, 2007;Bettinelli et al, 2008;Ader and Avouac, 2013), the New Madrid intra-plate region of North America (Craig et al, 2017), California (Johnson et al, 2017a), the volcanic centres of western US (Christiansen et al, 2005), the Balkans (Muço, 1999), India (Smirnov et al, 2018), and icequakes in Switzerland (Dalban Canassy et al, 2016). This apparent stronger correlation of seismicity with seasonal loads rather diurnal solid Earth tides is attributed the earthquake nucleation time-scale being much longer than the diurnal time-scale (Beeler and Lockner, 2003), but smaller than the seasonal time-scale.…”

Section: Geoscientific Contribution: Msstmentioning

confidence: 99%

Periodic seismicity detection without declustering

Park,

Kiraly,

Bourne

2021

Preprint

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Any periodic variations of earthquake occurrence rates in response to small, known, periodic stress variations provide important opportunities to learn about the earthquake nucleation process. Yet, reliable detection of earthquake periodicity is complicated by the presence of earthquake clustering due to aftershocks and foreshocks. Existing methods for detecting periodicity in an earthquake catalogue typically require the prior removal of these clustered events. Declustering is a highly uncertain process, so declustering methods are inherently non-unique. Incorrect declustering may remove some independent events, or fail to remove some aftershocks or foreshocks, or both. These two types of error could respectively lead to false negative or false positive reporting of periodic seismicity. To overcome these limitations, we propose a new method for detecting earthquake periodicity that does not require declustering. Our approach is to modify the existing Schuster Spectrum Test (SST) by adapting a test statistic for periodic seismicity to account for the presence of clustered earthquakes within the catalogue without requiring their identification and removal.We describe the mathematical basis for this new test statistic, and the practical steps for applying this method to an earthquake catalogue. Using simulated earthquake catalogues we verify the expected performance of our Modified Schuster Spectrum Test (MSST) and compare it to the existing SST. In the absence of aftershocks, both methods yield similar true positive, false positive and false negative rates, as expected. In the presence of aftershocks, the existing SST false positive rates increase significantly whilst the MSST false positive rates remain essentially unaffected. We conclude by applying both methods to two observed earthquake catalogues with previously reported evidence for seasonal seismicity rates. The first is within the New Madrid Seismic Zone where the SST method finds statistically significant periodicities with and without declustering. Our

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Section: Geoscientific Contribution: Msstmentioning

confidence: 99%

Periodic seismicity detection without declustering

Park,

Kiraly,

Bourne

2021

Preprint

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“…Reservoir impoundment or discharge causes changes in the local stress field below and around the reservoir and changes in the fault stress field, thereby inducing earthquakes 2 , 9 . Previous studies have also investigated the relationship between reservoir water level and seismicity 12 – 15 . Simpson et al 12 summarized that rate changes of reservoir water level is a significant factor in determining the reservoir-induced seismicity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The results showed that earthquake frequency is related to quasi periodic variation in the water level. Smirnov et al 15 pointed out that the amplitudes of the seasonal peaks of the induced earthquakes are not constant but vary significantly with time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variations in seismic parameters for the earthquakes during loading and unloading periods in the Three Gorges Reservoir area

Zhang

Liao

Chen

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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As the largest water conservancy and hydropower project in China, the Three Gorges Reservoir is a weak seismic activity area before impoundment, but the frequency of earthquakes increases significantly after impoundment. The spatial density scanning method was used to obtain the characteristics of spatio-temporal earthquake distribution in the reservoir area during loading and unloading processes. The results show that the frequencies of earthquakes during the loading and unloading processes were higher than that during the low-water-level operation period, which is well explained by the acoustic emission test results. The seismic b-value, fractal dimension D, and spatial correlation length SCL can be used together to indicate stress criticality. To analyze the impacts of reservoir water loading and unloading on seismicity in the reservoir area, time-scan analyses were performed on the b-value, D-value, and SCL of earthquakes near the Zigui segment and the Badong segment. Previous studies argued that the time-varying characteristics of b-values do not hold predictive significance for earthquakes in the M4.0–6.2 range. However, our study found that the time-varying characteristics of b-values are of predictive significance for earthquakes around M4.0. These seismic parameters decrease significantly before moderate earthquakes but at different rates in different regions.

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