On the evolution of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Fingerprint and implications for decadal predictability in the North Atlantic

Zhang, Jin‐Ting; Zhang, Rong

doi:10.1002/2015gl064596

Cited by 62 publications

(117 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…S6 in the supplemental material). The positive AMOC anomaly subsequently extends southward; at 308N, the AMOC experiences a maximum another 2-3 years later (not shown), consistent with Zhang (2010) and Zhang and Zhang (2015). The AMOC anomaly associated with the AMV is shown in Fig.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 70%

“…The anomalies are reversed during cold phases (cold subpolar gyre, warm Gulf Stream), consistent with our findings. Furthermore, this pattern of subsurface heat content has been identified as a ''subsurface fingerprint of the AMOC'' by Zhang (2008), who attributed it to meridional heat transport convergence in the subpolar gyre associated with an increased AMOC and associated heat transport divergence in the Gulf Stream region (see also Zhang and Zhang 2015).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a Model with an Improved North Atlantic Current

Drews

Greatbatch

2017

J. Climate

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This article investigates the dynamics and temporal evolution of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) in a coupled climate model. The model contains a correction to the North Atlantic flow field to improve the path of the North Atlantic Current, thereby alleviating the surface cold bias, a common problem with climate models, and offering a unique opportunity to study the AMV in a model. Changes in greenhouse gas forcing or aerosol loading are not considered. A striking feature of the results is the contrast between the western and eastern sides of the subpolar gyre in the model. On the western side, anomalous heat supply by the ocean plays a major role, with most of this heat being given up to the atmosphere in the warm phase, largely symmetrically about the time of the AMV maximum. By contrast, on the eastern side, the ocean anomalously gains heat from the atmosphere, with relatively little role for ocean heat supply in the years before the AMV maximum. Thereafter, the balance changes with heat now being anomalously removed from the eastern side by the ocean, leading to a reduced ocean heat content, behavior associated with the establishment of an intergyre gyre at the time of the AMV maximum. In the warm phase, melting sea ice leads to a freshening of surface waters northeast of Greenland that travel southward into the Irminger and Labrador Seas, shutting down convection and terminating the AMV warm phase.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 70%

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confidence: 99%

Evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a Model with an Improved North Atlantic Current

Drews

Greatbatch

2017

J. Climate

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“…In the subpolar North Atlantic a freshening and cooling has occurred after 2005 (Robson et al, 2016;Tesdal et al, 2018), which is suggested to have been induced by negative density anomalies resulting from the post-1995 decadal subpolar gyre warming (Häkkinen & Rhines, 2004;Hátún et al, 2005;Robson et al, 2014). Here, the freshwater input is not a locally generated feature, but a signature of decadal overturning circulation variability in the North Atlantic (Smeed et al, 2018;Zhang, 2008;Zhang & Zhang, 2015). Measurements on Nuka Arctica confirm a substantial winter cooling from 2004 to 2017 and simultaneously a freshening in the Iceland Basin.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 75%

Wintertime fCO₂ Variability in the Subpolar North Atlantic Since 2004

Fröb

Olsen

Becker

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Winter data of surface ocean temperature (SST), salinity (SSS) and CO2 fugacity (fCO2) collected on the VOS M/V Nuka Arctica in the subpolar North Atlantic between 2004 and 2017 are used to establish trends, drivers, and interannual variability. Over the period, waters cooled and freshened, and the fCO2 increased at a rate similar to the atmospheric CO2 growth rate. When accounting for the freshening, the inferred increase in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) was found to be approximately twice that expected from atmospheric CO2 alone. This is attributed to the cooling. In the Irminger Sea, fCO2 exhibited additional interannual variations driven by atmospheric forcing through winter mixing. As winter fCO2 in the region is close to the atmospheric, the subpolar North Atlantic has varied between being slightly supersaturated and slightly undersaturated over the investigated period.

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“…This might be associated with the existence of interior Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) pathways. A stronger (weaker) AMOC results in warming (cooling) in the subpolar gyre after several years, contributing to enhanced decadal predictability of sea ice in the North Atlantic sector (e.g., Mahajan et al, 2011;Zhang and Zhang, 2015). In contrast to September, the analysis of March regional indices suggests that sea ice in the Atlantic side has higher predictability than that of the Pacific side.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice predictability in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

Yang

Liu

et al. 2016

The Cryosphere

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Abstract. This paper examines the ability of coupled global climate models to predict decadal variability of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. We analyze decadal hindcasts/predictions of 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Decadal hindcasts exhibit a large multimodel spread in the simulated sea ice extent, with some models deviating significantly from the observations as the predicted ice extent quickly drifts away from the initial constraint. The anomaly correlation analysis between the decadal hindcast and observed sea ice suggests that in the Arctic, for most models, the areas showing significant predictive skill become broader associated with increasing lead times. This area expansion is largely because nearly all the models are capable of predicting the observed decreasing Arctic sea ice cover. Sea ice extent in the North Pacific has better predictive skill than that in the North Atlantic (particularly at a lead time of 3-7 years), but there is a reemerging predictive skill in the North Atlantic at a lead time of 6-8 years. In contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice decadal hindcasts do not show broad predictive skill at any timescales, and there is no obvious improvement linking the areal extent of significant predictive skill to lead time increase. This might be because nearly all the models predict a retreating Antarctic sea ice cover, opposite to the observations. For the Arctic, the predictive skill of the multi-model ensemble mean outperforms most models and the persistence prediction at longer timescales, which is not the case for the Antarctic. Overall, for the Arctic, initialized decadal hindcasts show improved predictive skill compared to uninitialized simulations, although this improvement is not present in the Antarctic.

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On the evolution of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Fingerprint and implications for decadal predictability in the North Atlantic

Cited by 62 publications

References 39 publications

Evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a Model with an Improved North Atlantic Current

Evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a Model with an Improved North Atlantic Current

Wintertime fCO₂ Variability in the Subpolar North Atlantic Since 2004

Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice predictability in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

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On the evolution of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Fingerprint and implications for decadal predictability in the North Atlantic

Cited by 62 publications

References 39 publications

Evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a Model with an Improved North Atlantic Current

Evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a Model with an Improved North Atlantic Current

Wintertime fCO2 Variability in the Subpolar North Atlantic Since 2004

Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice predictability in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

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Wintertime fCO₂ Variability in the Subpolar North Atlantic Since 2004