We would like to thank Jagjit Chadha and Garry Young for helpful comments and Patricia Sanchez Juanino for preparing the charts and compiling the database underlying the forecast. The forecast was completed on 17 July 2020. Exchange rate, interest rate and equity price assumptions are based on information available to 10 July 2020. Unless otherwise specified, the source of all data reported in tables and figures is the NiGEM database and NIESR forecast baseline.