On the FP7 BlackSeaHazNet Project and Its Possible Application for Harmonic Existence of the Regions

Mavrodiev, Strachimir Chterev; Pekevski, Lazo

doi:10.1007/978-94-007-6152-0_22

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

References 8 publications

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“…For the solving step by step "when, where and how" earthquake prediction problem we need realization of project ( [58] [59] (http://theo.inrne.bas.bg/~mavrodi/project.html)), [60]:…”

Section: Proposal For Complex Program For Solving "When Where and Homentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Imminent Regional Seismic Activity Forecasting Using INTERMAGNET and Sun-Moon Tide Code Data

Mavrodiev¹,

Pekevski²,

Kikuashvili³

et al. 2015

OJER

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In this paper we present an approach for forecasting the imminent regional seismic activity by using geomagnetic data and Earth tide data. The time periods of seismic activity are the time periods around the Sun-Moon extreme of the diurnal average value of the tide vector module. For analyzing the geomagnetic data behaviour we use diurnal standard deviation of geomagnetic vector components F (North, East, Down) for calculating the time variance GeomagSignal. The Sun storm influence is avoided by using data for daily A-indexes (published by NOAA). The precursor signal for forecasting the incoming regional seismic activity is a simple function of the present and previous day GeomagSignal and A-indexes values. The reliability of the geomagnetic "when, regional" precursor is demonstrated by using statistical analysis of day difference between the times of "predicted" and occurred earthquakes. The base of the analysis is a natural hypothesis that the "predicted" earthquake is the one whose surface energy density in the monitoring point is bigger than the energy densities of all occurred earthquakes in the same period and region. The reliability of the approach was tested using the INTERMAGNET stations data located in Bulgaria, Panagurishte, PAG (in the time of EU IRSES BlackSeaHazNet (2011-2014) project. The steps of program for solving the "when, where and how" earthquake prediction problem are shortly described. S. Cht. Mavrodiev et al. 103

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“…For the solving step by step "when, where and how" earthquake prediction problem we need realization of project ( [58] [59] (http://theo.inrne.bas.bg/~mavrodi/project.html)), [60]:…”

Section: Proposal For Complex Program For Solving "When Where and Homentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Imminent Regional Seismic Activity Forecasting Using INTERMAGNET and Sun-Moon Tide Code Data

Mavrodiev¹,

Pekevski²,

Kikuashvili³

et al. 2015

OJER

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

On the FP7 BlackSeaHazNet Project and Its Possible Application for Harmonic Existence of the Regions

Cited by 1 publication

References 8 publications

On the Imminent Regional Seismic Activity Forecasting Using INTERMAGNET and Sun-Moon Tide Code Data

On the Imminent Regional Seismic Activity Forecasting Using INTERMAGNET and Sun-Moon Tide Code Data

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