On the Frequency of Jupiter Analogs

Wittenmyer, Robert A.; Tinney, C. G.; O'Toole, S. J.; Jones, H. R. A.; Butler, R. Paul; Carter, B. D.; Bailey, Jeremy

doi:10.1088/0004-637x/727/2/102

Cited by 90 publications

(99 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…only in the range of 3-6 AU, Lineweaver & Grether (2003) estimated a frequency of 5 ± 2% which is e.g. consistent with the discovery rate in the AAPS survey (3.3 ± 1.4%, Wittenmyer et al 2011). Such low observed frequencies are compatible with the non-detection of a Jupiter analogue in our sample and a decreasing frequency of giant planets at larger distances ( 5 AU) is also predicted with core accretion theory (Mordasini et al 2012).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

The planet search programme at the ESO CES and HARPS

Zechmeister

Kürster

Endl³

et al. 2013

A&A

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Context. In 1992 we began a precision radial velocity survey for planets around solar-like stars with the Coudé Echelle Spectrograph and the Long Camera (CES LC) at the 1.4 m telescope in La Silla (Chile) resulting in the discovery of the planet ι Hor b. We have continued the survey with the upgraded CES Very Long Camera (VLC) and the HARPS spectrographs, both at the 3.6 m telescope, until 2007. Aims. In this paper we present additional radial velocities for 31 stars of the original sample with higher precision. The observations cover a time span of up to 15 years and permit a search for Jupiter analogues. Methods. The survey was carried out with three different instruments/instrument configurations using the iodine absorption cell and the ThAr methods for wavelength calibration. We combine the data sets and perform a joint analysis for variability, trends, and periodicities. We compute Keplerian orbits for companions and detection limits in case of non-detections. Moreover, the HARPS radial velocities are analysed for correlations with activity indicators (CaII H&K and cross-correlation function shape). Results. We achieve a long-term RV precision of 15 m/s (CES+LC, 1992-1998, 9 m/s (CES+VLC, 1999, and 2.8 m/s (HARPS, 2003(HARPS, -2009, including archive data), respectively. This enables us to confirm the known planetary signals in ι Hor and HR 506 as well as the three known planets around HR 3259. A steady RV trend for Ind A can be explained by a planetary companion and calls for direct imaging campaigns. On the other hand, we find previously reported trends to be smaller for β Hyi and not present for α Men. The candidate planet Eri b was not detected despite our better precision. Also the planet announced for HR 4523 cannot be confirmed. Long-term trends in several of our stars are compatible with known stellar companions. We provide a spectroscopic orbital solution for the binary HR 2400 and refined solutions for the planets around HR 506 and ι Hor. For some other stars the variations could be attributed to stellar activity, as e.g. the magnetic cycle in the case of HR 8323. Conclusions. The occurrence of two Jupiter-mass planets in our sample is in line with the estimate of 10% for the frequency of giant planets with periods smaller than 10 yr around solar-like stars. We have not detected a Jupiter analogue, while the detections limits for circular orbits indicate at 5 AU a sensitivity for minimum mass of at least 1M Jup (2M Jup ) for 13% (61%) of the stars.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

The planet search programme at the ESO CES and HARPS

Zechmeister

Kürster

Endl³

et al. 2013

A&A

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“…1, middle panel). This data set, too, can be described as being flat and no periodic signals have been reported by the AAPS group despite an extensive baseline of the time-series of 4923 days (Wittenmyer et al 2011b). This data does not have such clear annual gaps as the HARPS data ( Fig.…”

Section: Radial Velocity Datamentioning

confidence: 93%

Signals embedded in the radial velocity noise

Tuomi

Jones

Jenkins

et al. 2013

A&A

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Context. The abilities of radial velocity exoplanet surveys to detect the lowest-mass extra-solar planets are currently limited by a combination of instrument precision, lack of data, and "jitter". Jitter is a general term for any unknown features in the noise, and reflects a lack of detailed knowledge of stellar physics (asteroseismology, starspots, magnetic cycles, granulation, and other stellar surface phenomena), as well as the possible underestimation of instrument noise. Aims. We study an extensive set of radial velocities for the star HD 10700 (τ Ceti) to determine the properties of the jitter arising from stellar surface inhomogeneities, activity, and telescope-instrument systems, and perform a comprehensive search for planetary signals in the radial velocities. Methods. We performed Bayesian comparisons of statistical models describing the radial velocity data to quantify the number of significant signals and the magnitude and properties of the excess noise in the data. We reached our goal by adding artificial signals to the "flat" radial velocity data of HD 10700 and by seeing which one of our statistical noise models receives the greatest posterior probabilities while still being able to extract the artificial signals correctly from the data. We utilised various noise components to assess properties of the noise in the data and analyse the HARPS, AAPS, and HIRES data for HD 10700 to quantify these properties and search for previously unknown low-amplitude Keplerian signals.Results. According to our analyses, moving average components with an exponential decay with a timescale from a few hours to few days, and Gaussian white noise explains the jitter the best for all three data sets. Fitting the corresponding noise parameters results in significant improvements of the statistical models and enables the detection of very weak signals with amplitudes below 1 m s −1 level in our numerical experiments. We detect significant periodicities that have no activity-induced counterparts in the combined radial velocities. Three of these signals can be seen in the HARPS data alone, and a further two can be inferred by utilising the AAPS and Keck data. These periodicities could be interpreted as corresponding to planets on dynamically stable close-circular orbits with periods of 13.9, 35.4, 94, 168, and 640 days and minimum masses of 2.0, 3.1, 3.6, 4.3, and 6.6 M ⊕ , respectively.

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“…In this paper, we expand on our work in Wittenmyer et al (2011b), adding a further five years of observational data from the Anglo-Australian Planet Search (AAPS), which has now been in continuous operation for 17 years. This allows us to deliver a refined estimate of the occurrence rate of Jupiter analogs in our sample.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Anglo-Australian Planet Search Xxiv: The Frequency of Jupiter Analogs

Wittenmyer

Butler

Tinney

et al. 2016

ApJ

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We present updated simulations of the detectability of Jupiter analogs by the 17-year Anglo-Australian Planet Search. The occurrence rate of Jupiter-like planets that have remained near their formation locations beyond the ice line is a critical datum necessary to constrain the details of planet formation. It is also vital in our quest to fully understand how common (or rare) planetary systems like our own are in the Galaxy. From a sample of 202 solartype stars, and correcting for imperfect detectability on a star-by-star basis, we derive a frequency of 6.2 1.6 2.8 -+ % for giant planets in orbits from 3 to 7 au. When a consistent definition of "Jupiter analog" is used, our results are in agreement with those from other legacy radial-velocity surveys.

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On the Frequency of Jupiter Analogs

Cited by 90 publications

References 47 publications

The planet search programme at the ESO CES and HARPS

The planet search programme at the ESO CES and HARPS

Signals embedded in the radial velocity noise

The Anglo-Australian Planet Search Xxiv: The Frequency of Jupiter Analogs

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