On the improvement of wave and storm surge hindcasts by downscaled atmospheric forcing: application to historical storms

Bresson, Émilie; Arbogast, Philippe; Aouf, Lotfi; Paradis, Denis; Kortcheva, Anna; Bogatchev, Andrey; Galabov, Vasko; Dimitrova, Margarita; Morvan, Guillaume; Ohl, Patrick; Tsenova, Boryana; Rabier, Florence

doi:10.5194/nhess-18-997-2018

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Other applications include the creation of reanalysis datasets, where data from multiple sources are combined to generate an accurate as possible picture of the state of a system in the past. Such datasets can be useful for improving physical understanding and validation, for example see studies by Bresson et al (2018) and Brown et al (2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variational data assimilation of sea surface height into a regional storm surge model: Benefits and limitations

Byrne

Horsburgh

Williams

2021

Journal of Operational Oceanography

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Storm surges are coastal sea-level variations caused by meteorological conditions. It is vital that they are forecasted accurately to reduce the potential for financial damage and loss of life. In this study, we investigate how effectively the variational assimilation of sparse sea level observations from tide gauges can be used for operational forecasting in the North Sea. Novel data assimilation ideas are considered and evaluated: a new shortest-path method for generating improved distance-based correlations in the presence of coastal boundaries and an adaptive error covariance model. An assimilation setup is validated by removing selections of tide gauges from the assimilation procedure for a North Sea case study. These experiments show widespread improvements in RMSE and correlations, reaching up to 16 cm and 0.7 (respectively) at some locations. Simulated forecast experiments show RMSE improvements of up to 5 cm for the first 24 h of forecasting, which is useful operationally. Beyond 24 h, improvements quickly diminish however. Using the setup based on the shortest path algorithm shows little difference when compared to a simpler Euclidean method at most locations. Analysis of this event shows that improvements due to data assimilation are bounded and relatively short lived.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variational data assimilation of sea surface height into a regional storm surge model: Benefits and limitations

Byrne

Horsburgh

Williams

2021

Journal of Operational Oceanography

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“…[139][140][141] Fortunato et al 142 used a suite of models to downscale a strong storm that hit the Iberian Peninsula in 1941, and to simulate water levels and inundated area in the Tagus estuary. Bresson et al 143 studied the 1952 North Sea storm surge using downscaling coupled with a wave model.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical weather data for climate risk assessment

Brönnimann

Martius

Röhr

et al. 2018

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

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Weather‐ and climate‐related hazards are responsible for monetary losses, material damages, and societal consequences. Quantifying related risks is, therefore, an important societal task, particularly in view of future climate change. For this task, climate risk assessment increasingly uses model chains, which mainly build on data from the last few decades. The past record of events could play a role in this context. New numerical techniques can make use of historical weather data to simulate impacts quantitatively. However, using historical data for model applications differs from using recent products. Here, we provide an overview of climate risk assessment methodologies and of the properties of historical instrumental and documentary data. Using three examples, we then outline how historical environmental data can be used today in climate risk assessment by (1) developing and validating numerical model chains, (2) providing a large statistical sample which can be directly exploited to estimate hazards and to model present risks, and (3) establishing “worst‐case” events which are relevant references in the present or future. The examples show that, in order to be successful, different sources (reanalyses, digitized instrumental data, and documentary data) and methods (dynamical downscaling and analog methods) need to be combined on a case‐by‐case basis.

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“…According to Cid et al (2016), the Tunisian (Gulf of Gabes), Aegean, and Adriatic coasts undergo the highest number of sea level extreme events per year. In the Black Sea, the western coast is the most exposed to storm surges (Bresson et al, 2018). Low-elevation areas, deltas and sinking land areas (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coastal sea level monitoring in the Mediterranean and Black seas

Gómez¹,

Vilibić²,

Šepić

et al. 2022

Ocean Sci.

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Abstract. Employed for over a century, the traditional way of monitoring sea level variability by tide gauges – in combination with modern observational techniques like satellite altimetry – is an inevitable ingredient in sea level studies over the climate scales and in coastal seas. The development of the instrumentation, remote data acquisition, processing, and archiving in the last decades has allowed the extension of the applications to a variety of users and coastal hazard managers. The Mediterranean and Black seas are examples of such a transition – while having a long tradition of sea level observations with several records spanning over a century, the number of modern tide gauge stations is growing rapidly, with data available both in real time and as a research product at different time resolutions. As no comprehensive survey of the tide gauge networks has been carried out recently in these basins, the aim of this paper is to map the existing coastal sea level monitoring infrastructures and the respective data availability. The survey encompasses a description of major monitoring networks in the Mediterranean and Black seas and their characteristics, including the type of sea level sensors, measuring resolutions, data availability, and existence of ancillary measurements, altogether collecting information about 240 presently operational tide gauge stations. The availability of the Mediterranean and Black seas sea level data in the global and European sea level repositories has been also screened and classified following their sampling interval and level of quality check, pointing to the necessity of harmonization of the data available with different metadata and series in different repositories. Finally, an assessment of the networks' capabilities for their use in different sea level applications has been done, with recommendations that might mitigate the bottlenecks and ensure further development of the networks in a coordinated way, a critical need in the era of human-induced climate changes and sea level rise.

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On the improvement of wave and storm surge hindcasts by downscaled atmospheric forcing: application to historical storms

Cited by 8 publications

References 31 publications

Variational data assimilation of sea surface height into a regional storm surge model: Benefits and limitations

Variational data assimilation of sea surface height into a regional storm surge model: Benefits and limitations

Historical weather data for climate risk assessment

Coastal sea level monitoring in the Mediterranean and Black seas

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