On the influence of environmental factors on harvest: the French Guiana shrimp fishery paradox

Sanz, Nicolas; Diop, Bassirou; Blanchard, Gérard; Lampert, Luis

doi:10.1007/s10018-016-0153-6

Cited by 13 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Such a case study is challenging, because the shrimp stock is declining despite strong reductions in fishing effort over the past two decades. The negative role of external drivers including climate warming is thus put forward (Sanz et al, 2017).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In order to do so, we analyse the case of the French Guiana shrimp fishery (FGSF), a challenging task since, despite major reductions in fishing effort and harvest levels over the past two decades, the shrimp stock continues to decrease, which suggests that other factors may have a stronger influence on that fishery. Accordingly, the dynamic bioeconomic model developed in this paper considers that the shrimp stock's growth function depends on sea surface temperature (SST), as suggested in Sanz et al (2017).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Maximum Economic Yield Fishery Management in the Face of Global Warming

Diop

Sanz

Duplan

et al. 2018

Ecological Economics

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This paper deals with fishery management in the face of the ecological and economic effects of global warming. To achieve this, a dynamic bioeconomic model and model-based scenarios are considered, in which the stock's growth function depends on the sea surface temperature. The model is empirically calibrated for the French Guiana shrimp fishery using time series collected over the period 1993-2009. Three fishing effort strategies are then compared under two contrasted IPCC climate scenarios (RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6). A first harvesting strategy maintains the Status Quo in terms of fishing effort. A more ecologically-oriented strategy based on the closure of the fishery is also considered. A third strategy, which relates to Maximum Economic Yield (MEY), is based on the optimisation of the net present value derived from fishing. The results first show that 'Status Quo' fishing intensity combined with global warming leads to the collapse of the fishery in the long run. Secondly, it turns out that the Closure strategy preserves stock viability especially under the optimistic climate scenario. Thirdly, the MEY strategy makes it possible to satisfy bioeconomic performances requirements with positive stock and profit, once again, especially under the optimistic warming scenario. Consequently, MEY emerges as a relevant bioeconomic strategy in terms of adaptation to climate change but only in connection with climate change mitigation.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

Maximum Economic Yield Fishery Management in the Face of Global Warming

Diop

Sanz

Duplan

et al. 2018

Ecological Economics

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“…Research showed that sea surface temperature increased, sea surface currents changed and the peak of phytoplankton production (bloom intensity) decreased off the coast of French Guiana over the period of interest. Some new empirical results brought some more evidence of environmental impacts of shrimp stock and production in French Guiana (Sanz et al, 2017;Diop et al, 2018aDiop et al, , 2018b. However, causal relationships between these environmental changes and the evolution of shrimp recruitment have not yet been formally identified.…”

Section: Observed Trajectories Between 2006 and 2014mentioning

confidence: 99%

Back to the future: A retrospective assessment of model‐based scenarios for the management of the shrimp fishery in French Guiana facing global change

Blanchard

Chaboud

Thébaud

2019

Natural Resource Modeling

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While the number of models dedicated to predicting the consequences of alternative resource management strategies has increased, instances in which authors look back at past predictions to learn from discrepancies between these and observed developments are scarce. In the past decades, the French Guiana shrimp fishery has experienced shrimp market globalization and decreasing levels of shrimp recruitment due to environmental changes. In 2006, a bio‐economic model of this fishery was developed to simulate its possible responses to economic and environmental scenarios up to 2016. Here, we compare here these predictions to the observed trajectories. While the number of active vessels corresponds to that which was predicted, the estimated shrimp stock does not. Important driving factors had not been anticipated, including a general strike, natural disasters, and the end of the global financial crisis. These results show the importance of participative approaches involving stakeholders in the co‐construction and shared representation of scenarios. Recommendations for resource managers Effective fisheries resources management and a fortiori, the capacity of the fisheries to adapt to global change, requires understanding of both ecological and economics dynamics. The temporal trajectory of the trawling shrimp fisheries has been well monitored, and the decline of both stock and fleet is understood regarding ecological and economic changes: Changes in the environmental conditions of shrimp recruitment, and oil price increase and selling price decrease. However, our bio‐economic modeling work showed that, even with a good understanding of the dynamics explaining past trajectories, unpredictable events (strike, natural disasters…) have acted as other key driving factors altering the capacity of the model to represent possible futures. These results led us to recommend a better integration of the expertise of social and political scientists in developing models of bio‐economic systems to increase the quality of scenario predictions, and to argue for more participative approaches involving the stakeholders.

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“…Usually, the production function used in bio-economic literature for fisheries is the socalled Schaefer model where catches depend linearly on both fishing effort and stock. Here we depart from the usual approach by considering the Cobb-Douglas form as in Clark (1990) and Sanz et al (2017):…”

Section: The Production Functionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This suggests that other factors may have a stronger influence on the evolution of the FGSF. River flow rate, Niño/Niña phenomena and sea surface temperature (SST) has been shown as the more important factors negatively affecting the productivity of FGSF (Diop et al, 2018;Sanz et al, 2017). The SST has increased between 1970 and 2004 on the Guiana coast.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mangrove increases resiliency of the French Guiana shrimp fishery facing global warming

Diop

Blanchard

Sanz

2018

Ecological Modelling

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This paper deals with the biological, ecological and economic impact of global warming and mangrove habitat availability on the French Guiana shrimp fishery. A dynamic bio-economic model is built by employing a shrimp stock's growth function depending on Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and on mangrove surface. The model is empirically calibrated for the French Guiana shrimp fishery using time series collected over 1995-2011. First, two Cobb-Douglas functions, which describe shrimp's natural growth and harvest, are estimated. Then, a Maximum Economic Yield (MEY) harvest rule, based on the optimization of the net present value derived from fishing, is computed. Three management strategies are compared (Closure, Status Quo management, and MEY) under three mangrove surface fluctuations and climatic scenarios: (a) SST and mangrove remain stable, (b) SST rises while mangrove declines, (c) SST rises and mangrove remains stable. The scenarios considering a SST rise are based on the median greenhouse gases emission projections estimated by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The scenario focused on the reduction of mangrove surface is based on a general rate calculated on a global level. Our study shows that preserving the mangrove will increase the resiliency of French Guiana shrimp fishery in the long run. Highlights ► A dynamic bio-economic model for French Guiana shrimp fisheries. ► The model depends on SST and mangrove surface. ► Closure, Status Quo management, and MEY strategies are considered. ► Results shows that preserving mangrove will increase the resiliency of the fishery.

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On the influence of environmental factors on harvest: the French Guiana shrimp fishery paradox

Cited by 13 publications

References 32 publications

Maximum Economic Yield Fishery Management in the Face of Global Warming

Maximum Economic Yield Fishery Management in the Face of Global Warming

Back to the future: A retrospective assessment of model‐based scenarios for the management of the shrimp fishery in French Guiana facing global change

Mangrove increases resiliency of the French Guiana shrimp fishery facing global warming

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