On the Interpretation of Natural Archives of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract

 Significant progress has been made in the detection of ancient tropical cyclones in natural archives of environmental change  Attribution of the long-term variability of tropical cyclone activity to climate change requires an increase in the density of study sites  A standardized multi-archive, multi-proxy approach is needed to capture the spatiotemporal variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones Accepted ArticleThis article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as

Tropical cyclone frequency: turning paleoclimate into projections

“…Similarly, statistical paleohurricane proxies reconstruct TC-related climate variables. These reconstructions quantitatively calibrate proxy archives with regional records of TC-related climate variables over the observational period (Burn 2021). For example, Maxwell et al (2021) calibrated the width of the latewood portion of tree rings from longleaf pine in the Carolinas to TC precipitation.…”

“…Most paleohurricane proxies fall into two categories: event-based records and statistical records (Burn 2021). Most records are 'event-based' , meaning they identify and date distinct storm signatures in natural archives to reconstruct storm landfalls.…”

Resolving Long‐Term Variations in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Using a Pseudo Proxy Paleotempestology Network Approach

“…paleohurricane records are event-based, meaning that they reconstruct TC histories through identifying and dating indicator layers (e.g., coarse-grained overwash deposits, lower δ 18 O values of tree-ring cellulose) (Burn, 2021). These indicator layers often date within uncertainties to historical TCs of a known intensity that passed close to a site (<200 km).…”

“…Specifically, pseudo proxies created for paleohurricane sites in The Bahamas demonstrate that the majority of the signal captured in the single eventbased record from this region is due to random variability in TC tracks (e.g., local weather, moist processes) not large-scale climate variability (Wallace et al, 2020). Therefore, we must turn to wider-scale compilations of records to investigate long-term TC climate (Burn, 2021). Mann et al (2009) presented the first compilation of sediment-based paleohurricane records from the North Atlantic and found that it was statistically consistent with an independent statistical model prediction of past millennium hurricane activity.…”