On the Macroeconomic and Financial Implications of the Demographic Transition

Fanelli, José María; Albrieu, Ramiro

doi:10.1057/9781137481436_4

Asymmetric Demography and the Global Economy 2015

DOI: 10.1057/9781137481436_4

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On the Macroeconomic and Financial Implications of the Demographic Transition

José María Fanelli¹,

Ramiro Albrieu²

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“…6.Fanelli (2015a) brings together in-depth theoretical (using NTA and non-NTA frameworks) and empirical studies (focused on China, India, Brazil and South Africa) on the dynamic growth effects of asymmetric demography (i.e., inter-country variations demographic transition variables). These studies broaden the scope of demographic transition and its interactive effects with other variables on economic growth.…”

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Accounting for Growth Effects of Age Structure Transition through Public Education Expenditure: New Macroeconomic Evidence from India

Narayana

2018

South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance

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This article quantifies the growth effects of age structure transition through current public education expenditure. Using the National Transfer Accounts’ (NTA) First Demographic Dividend (FDD) model, growth effects are accounted by the impact of current public education expenditure on economic support ratio (ESR) and labour productivity through human capital investments. The results offer new macroeconomic evidence. Age structure transition reduces the education dependency ratio (EDR) by all levels of education but the highest in the elementary education. This impacts on a long-term decline in enrolment in elementary education where the current gross enrolment ratio (GER) is close to 100 per cent and a decline in current public education expenditure. Other things being equal, the resultant potential savings, or the availability of extra budgetary resources, is a new way of financing the investment requirements for secondary and higher education with the aim of increasing national economic growth through human capital investments. In particular, growth effects are shown to be positive, higher and longer up to 2050, if the current public education spending is reallocated more for the secondary and higher education. Surprisingly, growth effects are explained less by the ESR than labour productivity. This justifies a higher human capital investment to enhance labour productivity for attainment of higher economic growth. The afore- mentioned macroeconomic framework, results and implications are of general relevance for other developing countries in South Asia and elsewhere in the world. JEL Classification: E65, H52, J11

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Accounting for Growth Effects of Age Structure Transition through Public Education Expenditure: New Macroeconomic Evidence from India

Narayana

2018

South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance

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“…291 One has to consider Africa as a high-risk area for nicotinamide deficiency with resultant classic boom-bust demographics as history repeats itself, currently, in spades. 292 – 296…”

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Meat and Nicotinamide: A Causal Role in Human Evolution, History, and Demographics

Williams

Hill

2017

Int J�Tryptophan�Res

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Hunting for meat was a critical step in all animal and human evolution. A key brain-trophic element in meat is vitamin B3 / nicotinamide. The supply of meat and nicotinamide steadily increased from the Cambrian origin of animal predators ratcheting ever larger brains. This culminated in the 3-million-year evolution of Homo sapiens and our overall demographic success. We view human evolution, recent history, and agricultural and demographic transitions in the light of meat and nicotinamide intake. A biochemical and immunological switch is highlighted that affects fertility in the ‘de novo’ tryptophan-to-kynurenine-nicotinamide ‘immune tolerance’ pathway. Longevity relates to nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide consumer pathways. High meat intake correlates with moderate fertility, high intelligence, good health, and longevity with consequent population stability, whereas low meat/high cereal intake (short of starvation) correlates with high fertility, disease, and population booms and busts. Too high a meat intake and fertility falls below replacement levels. Reducing variances in meat consumption might help stabilise population growth and improve human capital.

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On the Macroeconomic and Financial Implications of the Demographic Transition

Cited by 2 publications

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Accounting for Growth Effects of Age Structure Transition through Public Education Expenditure: New Macroeconomic Evidence from India

Accounting for Growth Effects of Age Structure Transition through Public Education Expenditure: New Macroeconomic Evidence from India

Meat and Nicotinamide: A Causal Role in Human Evolution, History, and Demographics

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