On the nature of Keynesian probability

Fiat Money, Individual Rationality and Production

“…This time is associated with uncertainty of the type categorized by Fontana () as Uncertainty 1 ; where it is rational to hold some degree of belief, although the level of probability is unreliable due to a low ‘weight of argument’ attached to the premises that give rise to this belief. This is based on arguments in Keynes's ‘Treatise on Probability’ and is in contrast to statistically defined expectations (Keynes, 1973 [1921]; McCann, ).…”

“…Diarmid Weir low 'weight of argument' attached to the premises that give rise to this belief. This is based on arguments in Keynes's 'Treatise on Probability' and is in contrast to statistically defined expectations (Keynes, 1973(Keynes, [1921McCann, 2003). Our attempt therefore is not to build a more successful model of the search problem but to build a model that can rescue (any plausible) search model from irrelevance by explaining how a fiat money object is pre-valued.…”

Robert skidelsky. La biografía de un gran economista: John Maynard Keynes

“…La nueva aproximación considera esencial ese libro para comprender los fundamentos filosóficos de Keynes y su forma de abordar los problemas económicos; de manera especial su contenido ayuda a iluminar pasajes que antes se consideraban sin interés. Como señala McCann (1998): «El Estado de las Expectativas a Largo Plazo», capítulo 12 de la Teoría General, adquiere un significado más profundo en el contexto del Treatise que si se lee sólo en el contexto de la modelización empírica macroeconómica». La apreciación de Hicks (1969) del capítulo 12 de la Teoría General es muy diferente.…”