On the persistence and coherence of subpolar sea surface temperature and salinity anomalies associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability

Zhang, Rong

doi:10.1002/2017gl074342

Cited by 106 publications

(148 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…The observed monopolar AMV SST pattern with high spatial coherence over the entire North Atlantic can be simulated in CGCMs showing a relatively strong linkage/correlation between the AMOC and AMV, whereas in slab ocean models the SST anomalies associated with AMV over the midlatitude western North Atlantic have an opposite sign with those over other regions of the North Atlantic (Sun et al, ). This red noise forcing mechanism is incompatible with high coherence among observed subpolar North Atlantic SST, SSS, upper ocean heat and salt content at multidecadal (but not at interannual) timescales, and decadal persistence of observed subpolar North Atlantic SST and SSS variations and much higher multidecadal power (above a red noise level) in their spectra (Zhang, ). Hence, the red noise mechanism as found in slab ocean models implies no decadal predictability other than the simple short persistence, and the most predictable component of the North Atlantic SST persists much longer with much higher predictability in CGCMs than in slab ocean models (Figures e–g), due to the important role of ocean dynamics in CGCMs (Yan et al, ).…”

Section: Amoc‐amv Linkagementioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts

Zhang

Sutton

Danabasoglu

et al. 2019

Reviews of Geophysics

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390

362

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By synthesizing recent studies employing a wide range of approaches (modern observations, paleo reconstructions, and climate model simulations), this paper provides a comprehensive review of the linkage between multidecadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and associated climate impacts. There is strong observational and modeling evidence that multidecadal AMOC variability is a crucial driver of the observed AMV and associated climate impacts and an important source of enhanced decadal predictability and prediction skill. The AMOC‐AMV linkage is consistent with observed key elements of AMV. Furthermore, this synthesis also points to a leading role of the AMOC in a range of AMV‐related climate phenomena having enormous societal and economic implications, for example, Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts; Sahel and Indian monsoons; Atlantic hurricanes; El Niño–Southern Oscillation; Pacific Decadal Variability; North Atlantic Oscillation; climate over Europe, North America, and Asia; Arctic sea ice and surface air temperature; and hemispheric‐scale surface temperature. Paleoclimate evidence indicates that a similar linkage between multidecadal AMOC variability and AMV and many associated climate impacts may also have existed in the preindustrial era, that AMV has enhanced multidecadal power significantly above a red noise background, and that AMV is not primarily driven by external forcing. The role of the AMOC in AMV and associated climate impacts has been underestimated in most state‐of‐the‐art climate models, posing significant challenges but also great opportunities for substantial future improvements in understanding and predicting AMV and associated climate impacts.

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Section: Amoc‐amv Linkagementioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts

Zhang

Sutton

Danabasoglu

et al. 2019

Reviews of Geophysics

Self Cite

390

362

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“…The conceptual model for ocean mixed layer temperature can be used to discuss and evaluate the relative roles of the atmosphere and ocean (Barsugli & Battisti, ; Frankignoul, ; Frankignoul et al, ; Goodman & Marshall, ; Zhang, ):

ρ c_{p} h \frac{\partial T^{'}}{∂t} = Q_{net}^{'} + Q_{O}^{'} = q_{A}^{'} - λ_{A} T^{'} + q_{O}^{'} - λ_{O} T^{'} .

…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Zhang () later showed that inferences on the relative roles of

q_{A}^{'}

and

q_{O}^{'}

can be made from the

false{Q_{O}^{'}, T^{'} false}

false{Q_{net}^{'}, T^{'} false}

correlation, if the relative magnitudes of λ O and λ A are known. Given that λ O ≈ λ A over the midlatitude oceans, the correlation

false{Q_{O}^{'}, T^{'} false}

can only be positive if

q_{O}^{'} ≫ q_{A}^{'}

.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study we explicitly isolate the atmosphere‐ and ocean‐forced components of

T^{'}

, in order to quantify their relative roles and to validate the mathematical formula derived from the conceptual model by Zhang (). First, we decompose ocean temperature variability into parts forced by the anomalous surface heat fluxes and ocean circulation using the passive tracer decomposition approach described in Banks and Gregory (), Xie and Vallis (), Bouttes et al (), Marshall et al (), Garuba and Klinger (), and Gregory et al (), except here we decompose ocean temperature anomalies due to internal variability rather than those due to CO 2 forcing as in these earlier studies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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On the Relative Roles of the Atmosphere and Ocean in the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

Garuba

Singh

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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The relative roles of the ocean and atmosphere in driving the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) are investigated by isolating anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) components forced by anomalous surface heat fluxes and ocean dynamics in fully and partially coupled simulations. The impact of the ocean dynamics‐forced SST on air‐sea interaction is disabled in the partially coupled simulation in order to isolate the atmosphere‐forced variability. The atmosphere‐forced AMV component shows weak but significant variability on interdecadal timescales (10‐ to 30‐year periods), while the ocean‐forced component exhibits a strong multidecadal variability (25‐ to 50‐year periods). When coupled to the atmosphere, this ocean‐forced variability weakens and is imprinted on the coupled surface heat fluxes that further act to damp the ocean‐forced SST variability, causing a much weaker fully coupled AMV. Our results suggest that the AMV is largely driven by ocean circulation variability, but its power is also affected by the strength of air‐sea coupling.

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“…There is a wealth of literature that argues that coupled airsea interaction that fundamentally involves ocean dynamics is an important component of decadal variability, which is potentially predictable by coupled GCMs (Hayashi & Jin, 2017;McCarthy et al, 2015;Zhang, 2017). There is a wealth of literature that argues that coupled airsea interaction that fundamentally involves ocean dynamics is an important component of decadal variability, which is potentially predictable by coupled GCMs (Hayashi & Jin, 2017;McCarthy et al, 2015;Zhang, 2017).…”

Section: Subsurface Predictability In the North Atlanticmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimates of Decadal Climate Predictability From an Interactive Ensemble Model

Zhang

Kirtman

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Decadal climate predictability has received considerable scientific interest in recent years, yet the limits and mechanisms for decadal predictability are currently not well known. It is widely accepted that noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics at the air‐sea interface influences predictability. The purpose of this paper is to use the interactive ensemble (IE) coupling strategy to quantify how internal atmospheric noise at the air‐sea interface impacts decadal predictability. The IE technique can significantly reduce internal atmospheric noise and has proven useful in assessing seasonal‐to‐interannual variability and predictability. Here we focus on decadal timescales and apply the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent method to the Community Climate System Model comparing control simulations with IE simulations. This is the first time the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent has been applied to the state‐of‐the‐art coupled models. The global patterns of decadal predictability are discussed from the perspective of internal atmospheric noise and ocean dynamics.

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On the persistence and coherence of subpolar sea surface temperature and salinity anomalies associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability

Cited by 106 publications

References 58 publications

A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts

A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts

On the Relative Roles of the Atmosphere and Ocean in the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

Estimates of Decadal Climate Predictability From an Interactive Ensemble Model

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