On the possibility of predicting flare index and CME velocity using vector magnetograms

Chen, AnQin; Wang, Jingxiu

doi:10.1007/s11433-019-1489-0

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…Longer‐term SEP forecasts would first and foremost depend on understanding and predicting solar activity more generally. Recently, progress has been made in flare forecasting (e.g., Chen & Wang, 2020, Kusano et al., 2020. X. Wang et al., 2020), and it is expected that with machine learning patterns leading up to eruptions (flares and CMEs) can be recognized even more reliably.…”

Section: An L4 Mission That Is Critical For Human Explorationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Multi‐Purpose Heliophysics L4 Mission

Posner¹,

Arge

Staub

et al. 2021

Space Weather

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The Earth-Sun Lagrangian point 4 is a meta-stable location at 1 au from the Sun, 60° ahead of Earth's orbit. It has an uninterrupted view of the solar photosphere centered on W60, the Earth's nominal magnetic field connection to the Sun. Such a mission on its own would serve as a solar remote sensing observatory that would oversee the entire solar radiation hemisphere with significant relevance for protecting Moon and Mars explorers from radiation exposure. In combination with appropriately planned observatories at L1 and L5, the three spacecraft would provide 300° longitude coverage of photospheric magnetic field structure, and allow continuous viewing of both solar poles, with >3.6° elevation. Ideally, the L4 and L5 missions would orbit the Sun with a 7.2° inclination out of the heliographic equator, 14.5° out of the ecliptic plane. We discuss the impact of extending solar magnetic field observations in both longitude and latitude to improve global solar wind modeling and, with the development of local helioseismology, the potential for long-term solar activity forecasting. Such a mission would provide a unique opportunity for interplanetary and interstellar dust science. It would significantly add to reliability of operational observations on fast coronal mass ejections directed at Earth and for human Mars explorers on their round-trip journey. The L4 mission concept is technically feasible, and is scientifically compelling. Section 1: IntroductionSpace weather (SWx) forecasting is a complex problem, spanning vastly different regions of space and involving several scientific disciplines within and beyond Heliophysics. The main pillar that all SWx forecasts rely on is rapid availability of sets of observations of the Sun and inner heliosphere measured on the ground and on space platforms. Budgetary realism dictates the locations of observatories and their instrumentation to be chosen carefully so they address short-term needs and lead to long-term improvements.It is important to note that much of the underlying physics of space weather is not yet understood. This includes, to name just a subset of phenomena, the initiation of flares and coronal mass ejections, the acceleration of the solar wind and that of particles to high energies. At the time of writing, the Parker Accepted ArticleThis article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as

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Section: An L4 Mission That Is Critical For Human Explorationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Multi‐Purpose Heliophysics L4 Mission

Posner¹,

Arge

Staub

et al. 2021

Space Weather

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…对于第二个问题, 近期的研究工作给了我们很好的启示 [140] . [141,142,143,144] 、物理方法 [145] 以及当前流行的机器学习方法 [146,147] 所依据的磁场参量是一致的. Self-organized criticality (SOC) is a critical state of a nonlinear dynamical system or a complex system that is continuously driven toward a critical value of instability threshold independent of external parameters, resulting in scale-free, fractal-diffusive, and intermittent avalanches or energy releases with power-law distributions.…”

Section: 笔者认为要回答大地震或大型太阳爆发是否可mentioning

confidence: 99%