Abstract. Research in the field of earthquake
prediction has a long history, but the inadequacies of traditional approaches
to the study of seismic threats have become increasingly evident. Remote
sensing and Earth observation technology, an emerging method that can rapidly
capture information concerning anomalies associated with seismic activity
across a wide geographic area, has for some time been believed to be the key
to overcoming the bottleneck in earthquake prediction studies. However, a
multi-parametric method appears to be the most promising approach for
increasing the reliability and precision of short-term seismic hazard
forecasting, and thermal infrared (TIR) anomalies are important earthquake
precursors. While several studies have investigated the correlation among TIR
anomalies identified by the robust satellite techniques (RSTs) methodology and
single earthquakes, few studies have extracted TIR anomalies over a long
period within a large study area. Moreover, statistical analyses are required
to determine whether TIR anomalies are precursors to earthquakes. In this
paper, RST data analysis and the Robust Estimator of TIR Anomalies (RETIRA)
index were used to extract the TIR anomalies from 2002 to 2018 in the Sichuan
region using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land
surface temperature (LST) data, while the earthquake catalog was used to
ascertain the correlation between TIR anomalies and earthquake occurrences.
Most TIR anomalies corresponded to earthquakes, and statistical methods were
used to verify the correlation between the extracted TIR anomalies and
earthquakes. This is the first time that the ability to predict earthquakes
has been evaluated based on the positive predictive value (PPV), false
discovery rate (FDR), true-positive rate (TPR), and false-negative rate (FNR).
The statistical results indicate that the prediction potential of RSTs with
use of MODIS is limited with regard to the Sichuan region.