On the relationship between atmospheric rivers,  weather types and floods in Galicia (NW Spain)

Eiras‐Barca, Jorge; Lorenzo, Nieves; Taboada, J. J.; Robles, Alba; Míguez-Macho, Gonzalo

doi:10.5194/nhess-18-1633-2018

Cited by 34 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…(2016), found frequencies between 40 and 50% in Iberia, with higher peaks right on the western coast of the Peninsula. These are the regions most exposed to extratropical cyclones, together with Galicia (Eiras‐Barca et al ., 2018a), where the winter climatology is mostly driven by the North Atlantic flux and moisture transport. Indeed, the NW sector of the IP is the subdomain with the larger correspondence among rankings.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A ranking of concurrent precipitation and wind events for the Iberian Peninsula

Hénin

Ramos

Pinto

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The Iberian Peninsula (IP) is often affected by extreme precipitation and severe winds that are mostly associated with extratropical cyclones and their atmospheric fronts. ERA5 reanalysis data are used to revise and update two existing rankings of extreme precipitation and extreme potential wind‐loss days for the extended winter months on the IP. A ranking of concurrent precipitation and wind extreme events is produced by matching the two individual rankings for the IP and for specific IP subregions, including its main river basins. The intensity and the variability at the interannual and decadal scale are evaluated for precipitation, wind and concurrent precipitation and wind events. A systematic analysis of the underlying synoptic conditions is pursued for the top100 most extreme concurrent events including (a) cyclones' trajectories, (b) the presence of an Atmospheric River (AR), (c) recurrent patterns in the locations affected by precipitation and wind extremes and (d) possible long‐term trends. Results show that 85% of concurrent precipitation and wind extreme events are clearly associated with a cyclonic feature and most of these cyclones either cross the IP or pass to the northwest. Concurrent events are more likely occurring in the northwestern sectors of the IP on wintertime as in recent decades a downward trend for the events' frequency is observed in autumn. ARs are more likely associated with the strongest events occurring on the western sector of IP. Accordingly, the areas that mostly experience concurrent precipitation and wind extremes related to those systems are located in the northwestern sector of the peninsula.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A ranking of concurrent precipitation and wind events for the Iberian Peninsula

Hénin

Ramos

Pinto

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Multiple AR detection techniques (ARDTs) have been utilized to study ARs at a global scale using various global atmospheric reanalyses (e.g., Wick et al 2013;Rutz et al 2014;Guan and Waliser 2015;Mundhenk et al 2016). The majority of studies that use ARDTs at the regional scale focus on the United States (Guan and Waliser 2015;Mahoney et al 2016;Gershunov et al 2017) and Europe (Lavers et al 2012;Eiras-Barca et al 2018;Ramos et al 2018). Notable applications of ARDTs outside of these two locations have been in Antarctica (Gorodetskaya et al 2014), the Arctic (Mattingly et al 2018;Nash et al 2018), India (Yang et al 2018;Lakshmi et al 2019), Iran (Esfandiari and Lashkari 2020), and South Africa (Ramos et al 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Climatology of Atmospheric Rivers in New Zealand

et al. 2021

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The occurrence of extreme precipitation events in New Zealand regularly results in devastating impacts to the local society and environment. An automated atmospheric river (AR) detection technique (ARDT) is applied to construct a climatology (1979-2019) of extreme mid-latitude moisture fluxes conducive to extreme precipitation. A distinct seasonality exists in AR occurrence aligning with seasonal variations in the mid-latitude jet streams. The formation of the Southern Hemisphere winter split jet enablesARoccurrence to persist through all seasons in northern regions of New Zealand, while southern regions of the country exhibit a substantial (50%) reduction in AR occurrence as the polar jet shifts southward during the cold season. ARs making landfall on the western coast of New Zealand (90% of all events) are characterised by a dominant north-westerly moisture flux associated with a distinct dipole pressure anomaly; low pressure to the south-west and high pressure to the north-east of New Zealand. Precipitation totals during AR events increases with AR rank (five-point scale) throughout the country, with the most substantial increase on the windward side of the Southern Alps (South Island), with the largest events (rank 5 ARs) producing 3-day precipitation totals exceeding 1000 mm. ARs account for up to 78% of total precipitation and up to 94% of extreme precipitation on the West Coast of the South Island. Assessment of the multi-scale atmospheric processes associated with AR events governing extreme precipitation in the Southern Alps of New Zealand should remain a priority given their hydrological significance and impact on people and infrastructure.

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“…WPs are useful for reducing the complexity of atmospheric variability and can be used to make estimates of local‐scale variables such as precipitation (Huth et al ., 2008). The WPs have often been analysed in the context of extreme precipitation and flooding, particularly in terms of how their frequencies of occurrence change during such events (Wilby, 1993; Bárdossy and Filiz, 2005; Wilby and Quinn, 2013; Prein et al ., 2016; Eiras‐Barca et al ., 2018). A particular set (classification) of WPs, called MO30 (Neal et al ., 2016) was developed by the Met Office and is used in the present study.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking weather patterns to regional extreme precipitation for highlighting potential flood events in medium‐ to long‐range forecasts

Richardson

Neal²,

Dankers

et al. 2020

Meteorological Applications

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Medium‐ to long‐range precipitation forecasts are a crucial component in mitigating the impacts of fluvial flood events. Although precipitation is difficult to predict at these lead times, the forecast skill of atmospheric circulation tends to be greater. The study explores using weather patterns (WPs) as a preliminary step in producing forecasts of upper‐tail precipitation threshold exceedance probabilities for the UK. The WPs are predefined, discrete states representing daily mean sea‐level pressure (MSLP) over a European–North Atlantic domain. The WPs most likely to be associated with flooding are highlighted by calculating upper‐tail exceedance probabilities derived from the conditional distributions of regional precipitation given each WP. WPs associated with higher probabilities of extreme precipitation are shown to have occurred during two well‐known flood events: the 2014 Somerset Levels floods in southwest England; and Storm Desmond over the northern UK in December 2015. To illustrate the potential of this WP‐based prediction framework, a forecast guidance tool called Fluvial Decider is introduced. It is intended for use by hydro‐meteorologists in the England and Wales Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC). Forecasts of the MSLP from ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) are assigned to the closest‐matching WP, providing daily probabilistic forecasts of WPs out to the chosen lead time. Combining these probabilities with observed precipitation threshold exceedance probabilities provides a parsimonious tool for highlighting potential periods with increased risk of flooding. Model forecasts using the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) EPS highlighted both flood events as being at a higher than average risk of heavy extreme precipitation at lead times of over five days.

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On the relationship between atmospheric rivers, weather types and floods in Galicia (NW Spain)

Cited by 34 publications

References 32 publications

A ranking of concurrent precipitation and wind events for the Iberian Peninsula

A ranking of concurrent precipitation and wind events for the Iberian Peninsula

A Climatology of Atmospheric Rivers in New Zealand

Linking weather patterns to regional extreme precipitation for highlighting potential flood events in medium‐ to long‐range forecasts

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