On the relationships between ENSO and autumn rainfall in Iran

Nazemosadat, M. J.; Cordery, Ian

doi:10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(200001)20:1<47::aid-joc461>3.3.co;2-g

Cited by 35 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…For autumn, the most effective drivers are DMI, AMO, and SOI with 20, 19, and 19 significant correlation coefficients, respectively. A connection between the interannual variation in Iranian precipitation and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been reported in several studies (e.g., Nazemosadat and Cordery, ; Nazemosadat and Ghasemi, ; Shirvani and Landman, ). Pourasghar et al .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 79%

Daily Precipitation Extremes in Iran: Decadal Anomalies and Possible Drivers

Tabari

Willems

2016

J American Water Resour Assoc

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This study focuses on the empirical statistical analysis of the anomalies in daily precipitation extremes by applying the quantile perturbation method (QPM) to data from 31 Iranian weather stations during the period between 1961 and 2005. The possible causes behind the anomalies in precipitation extremes are identified by analyzing their relationship with the anomalies in eight atmospheric indices (i.e., NAO, SOI, PDO, AMO, NCP, DMI, WeMO, SSN). In terms of decadal oscillations, the country was generally wet in the 1960s and 1970s with most stations exhibiting periods of higher quantile perturbations, whereas lower quantile perturbations were dominant in the 1980s and 1990s. The highest perturbation in extreme precipitation quantiles prevails in Central Iran during the early 1980s, in which the quantiles are about 50% higher than the ones based on the full time series. The frequency of significant precipitation anomalies for winter season was greater than that for spring and autumn seasons. For the summer season, the humid region in North Iran demonstrates strong positive anomalies. The results highlight the noticeable role of large‐scale climatic factors in the anomalous behavior of precipitation extremes in Iran. The atmospheric drivers of the quantile anomalies in extreme precipitation were found to differ from one season to another.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 79%

Daily Precipitation Extremes in Iran: Decadal Anomalies and Possible Drivers

Tabari

Willems

2016

J American Water Resour Assoc

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“…Yu et al [] attributed the interannual to decadal variability in Saudi Arabian dust activity to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Indian Ocean and Mediterranean Sea, and North African rainfall and vegetation. ENSO's impact on Middle Eastern rainfall was previously demonstrated for the Arabian Peninsula [ Chakraborty et al , ; Tippett et al , ; Yu et al , ], Iran and Iraq [ Nazemosadat and Cordery , ; Mariotti , ; Zoljoodi and Didevarasl , ], Israel [ Price et al , ], and Kuwait [ Marcella and Eltahir , ], with drought typically associated with La Niña events. This ENSO‐rainfall relationship has intensified since the 1970s, potentially due to changes in the frequency and intensity of ENSO events and an apparent increased connectivity between the tropical Pacific Ocean and midlatitude circulations [ Wuethrich , ; Rajagopalan et al , ; Trenberth and Hoar , ; Price et al , ; Marcella and Eltahir , ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regime shift in Arabian dust activity, triggered by persistent Fertile Crescent drought

2015

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The Arabian Peninsula has experienced pronounced interannual to decadal variability in dust activity, including an abrupt regime shift around 2006 from an inactive dust period during 1998-2005 to an active period during [2007][2008][2009][2010][2011][2012][2013]. Corresponding in time to the onset of this regime shift, the climate state transitioned into a combined La Niña and negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which incited a hiatus in global warming in the 2000s. Superimposed upon a long-term regional drying trend, synergistic interactions between these teleconnection modes triggered the establishment of a devastating and prolonged drought, which engulfed the Fertile Crescent, namely, Iraq and Syria, and led to crop failure and civil unrest. Dried soils and diminished vegetation cover in the Fertile Crescent, as evident through remotely sensed enhanced vegetation indices, supported greater dust generation and transport to the Arabian Peninsula in 2007-2013, as identified both in increased dust days observed at weather stations and enhanced remotely sensed aerosol optical depth. According to backward trajectory analysis of dust days on the Arabian Peninsula, increased dust lifting and atmospheric dust concentration in the Fertile Crescent during this recent, prolonged drought episode supported a greater frequency of dust events across the peninsula with associated northerly trajectories and led to the dust regime shift. These findings are particularly concerning, considering projections of warming and drying for the eastern Mediterranean region and potential collapse of the Fertile Crescent during this century.

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“…Furthermore, it was found that the positive phase of NCP is associated with strong cyclonic activity over Iran, causing enhanced cloudy conditions and precipitation. Nazemosadat and Cordery (2000) found a negative correlation between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and precipitation over most of Iran (cold phase of ENSO favours precipitation), particularly over the southern foothills of the Alborz Mountains, the northwestern and central areas. In addition, Nazemosadat and Ghasemi (2004) showed that warm ENSO events substantially reduce (increase) the intensity and probability of occurrence of dry (wet) periods during autumn, particularly over southern Iran.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial patterns and regimes of daily precipitation in Iran in relation to large‐scale atmospheric circulation

Raziei

Mofidi

Santos

et al. 2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:The relationships between large-scale atmospheric circulation types and seasonal regimes of daily precipitation over Iran are assessed using daily precipitation from a high-resolution gridded dataset provided by the Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) Project. Regional spatial modes of daily precipitation variability were identified by S-mode Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with Varimax rotation, applied to the subset of days when at least 10% of all grid-points over Iran received precipitation ≥5 mm. The study refers to the period 1961-2004 and is carried out for each season (excluding summer) separately. To characterize the dynamical features associated with each regional precipitation regime (PR), composites of daily atmospheric fields are computed by only averaging days with rotated PCA scores ≥1.5 (strong positive phase). In autumn and winter, Iran is divided into five PRs, while four PRs are identified in spring. Results suggest that the spatial distribution of precipitation over Iran is largely governed by the geographical position of both the mid-tropospheric trough over the Middle East and the Arabian anticyclone. In fact, in almost all PRs, the trough, as a pre-conditioning factor, leads to regional-scale ascending motions, whereas the Arabian anticyclone induces low-tropospheric moisture transports from southern water bodies into the cyclonic systems near Iran, triggering rain-generating conditions.

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On the relationships between ENSO and autumn rainfall in Iran

Cited by 35 publications

References 24 publications

Daily Precipitation Extremes in Iran: Decadal Anomalies and Possible Drivers

Daily Precipitation Extremes in Iran: Decadal Anomalies and Possible Drivers

Regime shift in Arabian dust activity, triggered by persistent Fertile Crescent drought

Spatial patterns and regimes of daily precipitation in Iran in relation to large‐scale atmospheric circulation

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