On the robustness of the estimates of centennial‐scale variability in heavy precipitation from station data over Europe

Abstract

The impact of missing values on the centennial‐scale variability of heavy precipitation was analysed using daily data from European rain gauges. Sub‐sampling was modeled according to the observed structure of gaps in daily precipitation records. Quantitative estimates of the sampling impact on the long‐term variability derived from high‐quality long‐term station data were used for the homogenization of sampling in European time series and the estimation of long‐term secular tendencies in heavy precipitation indices. Centennial linear trends of extreme precipitation based on different indices are quite robust in winter but less robust in summer, implying seasonality in the trend estimates especially in Western Europe. Estimates of annual indices derived for the locations where different indices shows significant trends imply primarily positive centennial‐scale changes in heavy and very heavy precipitation with the strongest magnitudes of about 3–5% per decade in Eastern Europe.

Current Climatic Variability of Extreme Precipitation in Russia

“…Авторами был проведен детальный статистический анализ коли-чества и распределения во времени пропущенных значений в рядах суточ-ных осадков. Ранее, в работе (Zolina et al, 2005) были даны рекомендации о допустимом количестве пропущенных значений в суточных рядах осадков для достоверной статистической оценки трендов экстремальных осадков. В соответствии с этими рекомендациями из 1579 станций было выбрано 1430 станций (рис.…”

How spatially coherent and statistically robust are temporal changes in extreme precipitation in the contiguous USA?

“…3. Variations in trends identified at different stations (due to meso-scale influences (Zolina et al, 2005)) or with different data sets.…”

“…-positive 155 79 106 69 313 59 79 399 No change -no change 422 334 446 418 267 521 222 173 Negative -negative 18 165 16 98 32 13 285 40 Discrepancy 48 65 75 58 31 50 57 31 Kendall's tau: First two-thirds of the century Positive 25 43 34 33 272 34 61 266 No trend 539 396 546 451 331 582 300 294 Negative 79 204 63 159 40 27 282 83 Kendall's tau: Last third of the century Positive 41 79 61 65 101 41 129 133 No trend 592 529 563 554 480 576 438 402 Negative 10 35 19 24 62 26 2. Inherent difficulties in detecting trends in rare events (Frei and Schar, 2001) and sensitivities to missing data (Zolina et al, 2005).…”

The Rainfall Factor of Climate Change Effects on the Agricultural Environment: A Review

“…Also at areas with a reduction in annual precipitation amount, there is no pronounced response of the extremes. Centennial (1901Centennial ( -2000 trends in precipitation extremes for Europe show regional differences in seasonality (Zolina, et al 2005;Moberg et al, 2006). The most significant feature of central and western European precipitation is the significant increase in winter precipitation, in both the mean precipitation intensity and moderately strong events.…”

“…Klein-Tank and Konnen (2003) found that all European-average wet extremes increased during the second half of the 20th century , although low spatial coherence was found in the trend, there is also evidence of unsuitable large changes in extremes compared to annual totals. Studies by Zolina, (2005;Moberg et al, 2006) found that at the station where the annual precipitation amount has increased, the index for the fraction of the annual precipitation are due to very wet days shows disproportionately large changes in precipitation extremes. Also at areas with a reduction in annual precipitation amount, there is no pronounced response of the extremes.…”