On the role of different age groups during pertussis epidemics in California, 2010 and 2014

Mahmud, Ayesha S.; Lipsitch, Marc; Goldstein, Édward

doi:10.1101/405076

Cited by 3 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…However, the coefficient for delay × age group 13–18 years was negative meaning a temporal decline in titres for participants aged 13–18 years, suggesting that those adolescents played a disproportionate role in propagating the epidemic. The latter would be consistent with previous studies [ 25 , 26 ]. Besides, various models studying the immune response to B. pertussis infection provided evidence that secondary exposure is less likely to boost immunity than primary exposure, given equal levels of contact with B. pertussis .…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 94%

Seroprevalence of Bordetella pertussis toxin antibodies in children and adolescents in Tunis, Tunisia

et al. 2019

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Pertussis remains a public health concern in most countries. This cross-sectional study aims to investigate the distribution of pertussis toxin antibodies (anti-PT IgG) in Tunisian children and adolescents aged 3–18 years, to define optimal age for booster vaccination. Anti-PT IgG concentrations of enrolled participants were measured using commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Concentrations were classified as: indicative of current/recent infection if ⩾100 IU/ml, indicative of recent exposure to Bordetella pertussis within the last year if 40–100 IU/ml and less likely revealing a recent exposure to B. pertussis if <40 IU/ml. Between March and June 2018, a total of 304 participants (mean age: 9.3 years) were included in this study. Overall, 12.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 9.1%–16.6%) were seropositive (IgG levels ⩾40 IU/ml). Among them, 14.7% (95% CI 2.3%–23.3%) had levels indicative of a current/recent infection. The multivariate Poisson regression analysis suggested associations between female gender, as well as age group 13–18 years and 3–5 years and higher anti-PT IgG concentrations. Our results are consistent with the notion that vaccine-induced immunity decline, as well as circulation of pertussis among school children and adolescents enables them to be reservoirs of infection and disease transmission to vulnerable infants. Booster dose of acellular pertussis vaccine for school entrants is therefore recommended.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 94%

Seroprevalence of Bordetella pertussis toxin antibodies in children and adolescents in Tunis, Tunisia

et al. 2019

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“…The role of different age groups during the subsequent waves of Omicron epidemics is less studied. In this paper, we applied the previously developed methodology [8][9][10]3,4] to study the relative role of individuals in different age groups during the Spring, Summer, and Autumn waves of the Omicron epidemics in France. We found that children aged 10-19y played the greatest relative role in propagating Omicron epidemics, particularly when schools were open, followed by children aged 0-9y and adults aged 20-29y, as well as adults aged 30-49y.…”

Section: (Which Was Not Certified By Peer Review) Preprintmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In [14][15][16] we developed a method for assessing the relative role (per average individual) in different subpopulations in the spread of infection during epidemics of infectious diseases. The idea of that method is that subpopulations that play a disproportionate role during the outbreak's ascent due to increased susceptibility to infection and/or contact rates can be related to the relative risk (RR) statistic that evaluates the change in the subpopulation's proportion among all cases in the population before vs. after the epidemic's peak (see Methods).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the changing role of individuals in different age groups in propagating the Omicron epidemic waves in France

Goldstein

2022

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Background: There is limited information on the role of different age groups in propagating SARSCoV2 epidemics driven by the Omicron variants. Methods: We examined the role of individuals in different age groups in propagating the Spring, Summer, and Autumn waves of the Omicron epidemics in France using the previously developed methodology based on the relative risk (RR) statistic that measures the change in the proportion of an age group among all cases admitted to ICU for COVID19 before vs. after the peak of an epidemic wave. Higher value of the RR statistic for a given age group suggests a disproportionate depletion of susceptible individuals in that age group during the ascent of the epidemic (due to increased contact rates and/or susceptibility to infection). Results: For the Spring wave (March 14 through May 15), the highest RR estimate belonged to children aged 10 to 19y (RR=1.92 (95% CI (1.18,3.12)), followed by adults aged 40 to 49y (RR=1.45 (1.09,1.93)) and children aged 0 to 9y (RR=1.31 (0.98,1.74)). For the Summer wave (June 27 through Aug. 21), the highest RR estimate belonged to children aged 0 to 9y (RR=1.61 (1.12,2.3)) followed by children aged 10 to 19y (RR=1.46 (0.72,2.93)) and adults aged 20 to 29y (RR=1.42 (0.91,2.23)). For the Autumn wave (Sep. 18 through Nov. 12), the highest RR estimate belonged to children aged 10 to 19y (RR=1.63 (0.72,3.71)), followed by adults aged 30 to 34y (RR=1.34 (0.8,2.25)) and 20 to 24y (RR=1.20 (0.65,2.21)). Conclusions: Children aged 10 to 19y played the greatest relative role in propagating Omicron epidemics, particularly when schools were open, followed by children aged 0 to 9y and adults aged 20 to 29y, as well as adults aged 30 to 49y. Persons aged over 50y played a more limited role in propagating Omicron infection in the community. Additional efforts are needed to increase vaccination coverage in children aged 10 to 19y, as well as younger children and young adults to mitigate Omicron epidemics in the community.

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“…Less is known about the contribution of different age groups to the spread of infection during the subsequent waves of the Omicron epidemic. In this paper, we used the previously developed methodology [3,4,[21][22][23] ascent period of the epidemic in children aged 5-14y, followed by children aged 0-4y and 15-19y. This result is generally in agreement with the findings in our study of Omicron epidemics in France [14], as well as with the high rates/earlier peaks of infection in children in England in the UK coronavirus survey data for that period [9].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In our earlier work [21][22][23] we introduced a method for evaluating the role of individuals in different population groups in the spread of infection and applied it to data from epidemics associated with influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and pertussis in the United States.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On temporal changes in the role of different age groups in propagating the Omicron epidemic waves in England

Goldstein

2022

Preprint

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Background: There is limited information on the role of individuals in different age groups in the spread of infection during the Omicron epidemics, especially ones beyond the winter epidemic wave in 2021-2022. COVID-19 booster vaccination in England during the Autumn 2022 was restricted to persons aged over 50y, and persons in clinical risk groups. Methods: We used previously developed methodology to evaluate the role of individuals in different age groups in propagating the Spring, Summer, and Autumn waves of the Omicron epidemic in England. This methodology utilizes the relative risk (RR) statistic that measures the change in the proportion of cases in each age group among all COVID-19 cases in the population before the peak of an epidemic wave vs. after the peak of an epidemic wave. Higher values for the RR statistic represent age groups that experienced a disproportionate depletion of susceptible individuals during the ascent of the epidemic (due to increased contact rates and/or susceptibility to infection). Results: For the 2022 Spring wave, the highest RR estimate belonged to children aged 5 to 9y (RR=2.05 (95%CI (2.02,2.08)), followed by children aged 10 to 14y (RR=1.68 (1.66,1.7)) and children aged 0 to 4y (RR=1.38 (1.36,1.41)). For the Summer wave, the highest RR estimates belonged to persons aged 20 to 34y: (RR=1.09 (1.07,1.12) in aged 20 to 24y, RR=1.09 (1.07,1.11) in aged 25 to 29y, RR=1.09(1.07,1.11) in aged 30 to 34y). For the Autumn wave, the highest RR estimates belonged to those aged 70 to 74y (RR=1.10 (1.07,1.14)), followed by adults aged 35 to 39y (RR=1.09 (1.06,1.12)), adults aged 40 to 44y (RR=1.09 (1.06,1.12)), and adults aged 65 to 69y (RR=1.08 (1.05,1.11)). Conclusions: As time progressed, the greatest relative roles in propagating different waves of the Omicron epidemic in England shifted from school-age children to younger adults to adults aged 35 to 44y and 65 to 74y. Extending booster vaccination to all adults, and possibly to children should help limit the spread of Omicron infections in the community.

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On the role of different age groups during pertussis epidemics in California, 2010 and 2014

Cited by 3 publications

References 24 publications

Seroprevalence of Bordetella pertussis toxin antibodies in children and adolescents in Tunis, Tunisia

Seroprevalence of Bordetella pertussis toxin antibodies in children and adolescents in Tunis, Tunisia

On the changing role of individuals in different age groups in propagating the Omicron epidemic waves in France

On temporal changes in the role of different age groups in propagating the Omicron epidemic waves in England

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