On the Selection of Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for Seismic Hazard Analysis

Abstract

International audienceA key element in any seismic hazard analysis is the selection of appropriate ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). In an earlier paper, focused on the selection and adjustment of ground-motion models for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in moderately active regions--with limited data and few, if any, indigenous models--Cotton et al. (2006) proposed seven criteria as the basis for selecting GMPEs. Recent experience in applying these criteria, faced with several new GMPEs developed since the Cotton et al. (2006) paper was published and a significantly larger strong-motion database, has led to consideration of how the criteria could be refined and of other conditions that could be included to meet the original objectives of Cotton et al. (2006). In fact, about a dozen new GMPEs are published each year, and this number appears to be increasing. Additionally, Cotton et al. (2006) concluded that the criteria should not be excessively specific, tied to the state-of-the-art in ground-motion modeling at the time of writing and thus remaining static, but rather should be sufficiently flexible to be adaptable to the continuing growth of the global strong-motion database and the continued evolution of GMPE

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results

“…Pre-selection of GMPEs suitable for the adopted tectonic regionalisation (Cotton et al 2006;Bommer et al 2010). 2.…”

Peak ground accelerations from large (M ≥ 7.2) shallow crustal earthquakes: a comparison with predictions from eight recent ground-motion models

“…The observations are compared to predictions from eight recent GMPEs that are not excluded by the criteria of Bommer et al (2010): Abrahamson et al (2014), Akkar et al (2014b, c), Bindi et al (2014a, b), Boore et al (2014), Campbell and Bozorgnia (2014), Cauzzi et al (2015), Chiou and Youngs (2014) and Zhao et al (2016). Only ground-motion models for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regimes are considered as almost all identified records come from such regions (as opposed to stable areas).…”

Preface of special issue: A new generation of ground-motion models for Europe and the Middle East

“…The number of GMPEs derived continues to grow rapidly; according to the compendium of Douglas (2011) more than 15 new models are currently published every year. These developments led Bommer et al (2010) to recommend criteria for the selection of GMPEs to retain only those models for consideration that could be thought of as representing the state of the art. They also suggest that these criteria could be used as a quality assurance step to guide publication of new GMPEs.…”