On the Sensitivity of Short-Term Climate Prediction to Initial Atmospheric Conditions

Abstract

Two different sets of ensemble hindcasting experiments were performed with a grid-point Atmospheric General Circulation Model (IAP9L2x2.5-AGCM) forced by actual observed and climatic surface sea temperature(SST), sea ice respectively for seventeen years(1988-2004).In each of set of experiment, there were three tests from three different initial atmospheric conditions . Then the sensitivity of short-term climate prediction to initial atmospheric conditions was investigated. A simple correlation analysis showed that the influence of initial atmospheric conditions in the tropics is greater than that in the extratropics , so initial atmospheric conditions play a very important role on short-term climate prediction, especially in China. In addition, the initial atmospheric conditions of smoothing 5-day NCEP-DOE reanalysis2 data were the best from most of meteorological variables in this study.

Some statistical characteristics of “Geothermal Vortex” in China from 1980 to 2017

“…Under the background of climate change, the frequent occurrence of climate disasters and extreme weather events such as oods, droughts (Rosenzweig et al 2001;Meehl et al 2005) and so on in the world has caused serious economic losses (Lehner et al 2006) and become one of the important factors affecting economic development and social progress (Guan and Zhou 2012). The impact of climate change is not only a scienti c issue, but also related to the sustainable development of society and environmental protection.…”