On the Shoulders of Giants: Continuing the Legacy of Large-Scale Ecosystem Manipulation Experiments in Puerto Rico

Wood, Tana E.; González, Grizelle; Silver, Whendee L.; Reed, Sasha C.; Cavaleri, Molly A.

doi:10.3390/f10030210

Cited by 14 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…We addressed this issue by using meta-analysis data to aggregate warming responses across sites, but this approach does not provide site-specific parameters. Additional data from ongoing and future field warming studies in the vein of the Harvard Forest and Tropical Responses to Altered Climate experiments will be of critical importance for model testing (Melillo et al, 2017;Wood et al, 2019). Model parameters could also be better constrained through the use of multivariate data sets, for example microbial biomass dynamics in addition to soil respiration.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Bayesian Approach to Evaluation of Soil Biogeochemical Models

Xie¹,

Romero‐Olivares²,

Guindani³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. To make predictions about the effect of rising global surface temperatures, we rely on mathematical soil biogeochemical models (SBMs). However, it is not clear which models have better predictive accuracy, and a rigorous quantitative approach for comparing and validating the predictions has yet to be established. In this study, we present a Bayesian approach to SBM comparison that can be incorporated into a statistical model selection framework. We compared the fits of a linear and non-linear SBM to soil respiration CO2 flux data compiled in a recent meta-analysis of soil warming field experiments. Fit quality was quantified using two Bayesian goodness-of-fit metrics, the Widely Applicable information criterion (WAIC) and Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO). We found that the linear model generally out-performed the non-linear model at fitting the meta-analysis data set. Both WAIC and LOO computed a higher overfitting penalty for the non-linear model than the linear model, conditional on the data set. Fits for both models generally improved when they were initialized with lower and more realistic steady state soil organic carbon densities. Testing whether linear models offer definitively superior predictive performance over non-linear models on a global scale will require comparisons with additional site-specific data sets of suitable size and dimensionality. Such comparisons can build upon the approach defined in this study to make more rigorous statistical determinations about model accuracy while leveraging emerging data sets, such as those from long-term ecological research experiments.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Bayesian Approach to Evaluation of Soil Biogeochemical Models

Xie¹,

Romero‐Olivares²,

Guindani³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…Studies at Guánica include long-term research projects and are significant contributors to knowledge of hurricanes and forests in Puerto Rico with broader application referenced in the wider Caribbean and other tropical sites worldwide [37,66]. Reserved forest areas that include research designations, institutional commitment, and scientists with long-term research perspectives facilitate the establishment of permanent, experimental, and innovative research projects which uniquely contribute to the understanding of fundamental dynamics and processes [25,45,46,67]. However, it is important that research from these sites is kept in perspective regarding how representative the sites are to broader landscapes and regions [68] because of their essential role as drivers of knowledge generation on hurricanes and forests.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Broadening Our Understanding of Hurricanes and Forests on the Caribbean Island of Puerto Rico: Where and What Should We Study Now?

López-Marrero

Scalley

Rivera-López

et al. 2019

Forests

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Hurricanes shape ecosystems. A broad range of forested ecosystems is particularly affected by hurricanes, thus creating the need for studies addressing the effects of these disturbances. There is a long history of hurricane and forest research on the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. In this study, we present results from a systematic literature review of peer-reviewed articles regarding ecological research conducted in Puerto Rico on the topic of hurricanes and forests published from 1900 through 2017. We present a summary of cyclonic activity on the island during the study period and the results from the systematic literature review within this cyclonic context. We discuss findings in terms of aspects of forests studied, geographical distribution of study areas, and time scales at which research was conducted. These findings allow us to determine what was studied about hurricanes and forests, identify gaps in the information, and suggest possible areas of research and production of new knowledge that recent and future storms can bring. We conclude with recommendations identifying research needs and propose additional approaches to complement existing information. Our goal is to generate future knowledge from hurricane and forest research with the broadest applications possible.

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“…Wood et al [16], Shiels and González [17,18], Shiels et al [19], Kimball et al [20] Attention to climate and environmental change…”

Section: Element Of Research or Action Contributed Manuscripts*mentioning

confidence: 99%

Introduction to the Special Issue on Tropical Forests: Management and Ecology in the Anthropocene

Lugo

González

2019

Forests

Self Cite

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This Special Issue of Forests is based on papers presented at the 75th anniversary of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service International Institute of Tropical Forestry as well as other papers relevant to the topic of the Special Issue. The Institute is but one leg of a conservation relay among cultures and institutions that began in Puerto Rico a millennium ago. The Institute began operations in 1939 and celebrated its 75th anniversary on May, 2014. Over its 75 years of operation, the Institute has focused its research on tropical forests, with the scope of the research expanding over the years. An analysis of the lines of research of the Institute showed that over its history about 69 lines of research have been established and that of the original 17 lines of research between 1939 and 1949, all but one remained active in 2014. This history and continuity of the research program has allowed the Institute to observe ecological phenomena over decades, including the evolving forest structure and functioning on degraded land restoration experiments that began before the formal establishment of the Institute and are now over 80 years old.

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On the Shoulders of Giants: Continuing the Legacy of Large-Scale Ecosystem Manipulation Experiments in Puerto Rico

Cited by 14 publications

References 63 publications

A Bayesian Approach to Evaluation of Soil Biogeochemical Models

A Bayesian Approach to Evaluation of Soil Biogeochemical Models

Broadening Our Understanding of Hurricanes and Forests on the Caribbean Island of Puerto Rico: Where and What Should We Study Now?

Introduction to the Special Issue on Tropical Forests: Management and Ecology in the Anthropocene

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