On the Social and Cognitive Dimensions of Wicked Environmental Problems Characterized by Conceptual and Solution Uncertainty

Abstract

We develop a quantitative framework for understanding the class of wicked problems that emerge at the intersections of natural, social, and technological complex systems. Wicked problems reflect our incomplete understanding of interdependent global systems and the systemic risk they pose; such problems escape solutions because they are often ill-defined, and thus mis-identified and under-appreciated by communities of problem-solvers. While there are well-documented benefits to tackling boundary-crossing problems from various viewpoints, the integration of diverse approaches can nevertheless contribute confusion around the collective understanding of the core concepts and feasible solutions. We explore this paradox by analyzing the development of both scholarly (social) and topical (cognitive) communities — two facets of knowledge production studies here that contribute towards the evolution of knowledge in and around a problem, termed a knowledge trajectory — associated with three wicked problems: deforestation, invasive species, and wildlife trade. We posit that saturation in the dynamics of social and cognitive diversity growth is an indicator of reduced uncertainty in the evolution of the comprehensive knowledge trajectory emerging around each wicked problem. Informed by comprehensive bibliometric data capturing both social and cognitive dimensions of each problem domain, we thereby develop a framework that assesses the stability of knowledge trajectory dynamics as an indicator of wickedness associated with conceptual and solution uncertainty. As such, our results identify wildlife trade as a wicked problem that may be difficult to address given recent instability in its knowledge trajectory.

Mobilizing the transformative power of research for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals

“…A second option would be to look in formal publications for references to this type of informal knowledge and for collaboration with other actors. For instance, bibliometrics methods can help identify where non-academic actors are present within research communities (Arroyave et al, 2021;Romero et al, 2018;Shiffrin and Börner, 2004). In the same direction, bibliometric methods can contribute to the evaluation of alignment between scientific publications and social needs and demands (Ciarli and Ràfols, 2019).…”

Evolution of biomedical innovation quantified via billions of distinct article-level MeSH keyword combinations

“…For the same reasons, combinatorial approaches to search and discovery may prove valuable in exploring the vast solution space associated with many complex multi-dimensional challenges faced by society [4,[9][10][11]. Against this backdrop, here we develop and apply a systematic ontology-based approach for measuring the size, growth and structure of combinatorial innovation in the biomedical sciences.…”

Transformative Research Niches (TRNs)

“…However, it is widely argued and accepted that these interconnected challenges demand a new type of science 1 that underpins the necessary transformations of our economy and society [4]- [9]. Whilst it is acknowledged that scientific knowledge is crucial for addressing existing social and environmental problems, there is far less agreement on how scientific knowledge can support sustainable transformations and how different bodies of knowledge can work together [10], [11].…”

“…Yet, few investigations have been undertaken to study the emergence of knowledge trajectories related to social and environmental challenges [10]. By trajectories, I refer to the recombination of knowledge, its accumulation and diversification.…”

“…Just as technological innovations require dedicated spaces for experimenting with new practices and directions, science also necessitates such spaces. For instance, science associated with "wicked problems" such as climate change involves the interconnection between diverse stakeholders, integration of tacit knowledge, engagement with civil society, and integration between multiple disciplines [10]. These distinguished practices might then require specific spaces or niches for experimenting with new modes of producing knowledge.…”