Apache Spark is probably the most widely adopted framework for developing big-data batch applications and for executing them on a cluster of (virtual) machines. In general, the more resources (machines) one uses, the faster applications execute, but there is currently no adequate means to determine the proper size of a Spark cluster given time constraints, or to foresee execution times given the number of employed machines. One can only run these applications and use her/his experience to size the cluster and predict expected execution times. Wrong estimation of execution times can lead to costly overruns and overly long executions, thus calling for analytic sizing/prediction techniques that provide precise time guarantees. This paper addresses this problem by proposing a solution based on model-checking. The approach exploits a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) to abstract the structure of the execution flows of Spark programs, annotates each node (Spark stage) with execution-related data, and formulates the identification of the global execution time as a reachability problem. To avoid the well-known state space explosion problem, the paper also proposes a technique to reduce the size of generated abstract models. This results in a significant decrease in used memory and/or verification time making our approach feasible for predicting the execution time of Spark applications given the resources available. The benefits of the proposed reduction technique are evaluated by using both Timed Automata and Constraint LTL over clocks (CLTLoc) logic to formally encode and analyze generated models. The approach is also successfully validated on some realistic case studies. Since the optimization is not Spark-specific, we claim that it can be applied to a wide range of applications whose underlying model can be abstracted as a DAG.