On the Upwelling of the F Layer Base and Prediction of Equatorial Plasma Bubble

Abstract

Prediction of equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) continues to be a challenge for the scientific community. We present a novel data analysis approach, employed on the collocated radar and ionosonde observations from Gadanki, providing new experimental results for characterizing the overhead upwelling of the bottomside F layer and linking it to EPB formation. Using this new approach we propose a new parameter based on ionosonde observations to predict overhead occurrence of fresh EPB. Employing this new parameter on a fairly large data set of a single ionosonde station we could successfully predict overhead occurrence of all the fresh EPBs about an hour in advance. We also propose how this technique can be used for EPB prediction in a broader longitude zone.

Identifying the Onset Location of Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs) and Its Relationship With the Background Ionospheric Conditions

“…Previous studies that compared the EPB occurrence with the bottom height of F layer prior to the EPB development shows large scatter in the h’F values on a day‐to‐day basis (Abdu et al., 1983; Jyoti et al., 2004; Saito & Maruyama, 2007), which might be due to this narrow longitudinal confinement of EPB onset with respect to the background conditions. This confinement in longitude indicates the effect of local upwelling on the onset location of EPBs (Chou et al., 2020; Patra & Das, 2023).…”

“…However, the anomalous day-to-day variability in the occurrence of EPBs continues to exist as a challenging problem in the ionospheric research. Several attempts and advancements have been made in the past to predict the day-to-day variability of EPBs (e.g., Carter et al, 2014Carter et al, , 2020Patra & Das, 2023;Thampi et al, 2006). Despite several efforts, development of a precise EPB forecasting system remains to be fully accomplished.…”

“…This requires the estimation of onset location of EPBs and the examination of the background atmospheric and ionospheric conditions over that location. There are some recent attempts to examine the onset conditions of EPBs by distinguishing freshly generated EPBs from drifting-in EPBs, mainly using beam steering radar observations (Ajith et al, 2015(Ajith et al, , 2016Das et al, 2021;Das, Janardana Reddy, et al, 2022;Li et al, 2013;Patra & Das, 2023;Rodrigues et al, 2023). However, due to the finite Field of View (FoV) of radars, these studies were limited to small longitude sectors.…”

An Empirical Model of the Occurrence Rate of Low Latitude Post‐Sunset Plasma Irregularities Derived From CHAMP and Swarm Magnetic Observations

“…Although the underlying principle of GRT instability is well understood (e.g., Kelley, 2009;Sultan, 1996), understanding the variability in EPD occurrence on a day-to-day basis continues to be puzzling (e.g., Abdu, 2019;Basu et al, 2009;Carter et al, 2014;Chou et al, 2020;Das et al, 2021;Hysell et al, 2022;Manju & Aswathy, 2020;Patra & Das, 2023;Rajesh et al, 2017;Retterer & Roddy, 2014;Saito & Maruyama, 2007;Shinagawa et al, 2018;Tsunoda et al, 2010Tsunoda et al, , 2018Yamamoto et al, 2018). While the PRE has been found to show a remarkable agreement with EPD occurrence climatologically (e.g., Clemesha & Wright, 1966;Dabas et al, 2003;Fejer et al, 1999;Gentile et al, 2006;Huang & Hairston, 2015;Hysell & Burcham, 2002;Stolle et al, 2008;Su et al, 2008;Tsunoda, 2005), it fails to account on its day-to-day occurrence variability (e.g., Abdu et al, 1983;Fukao et al, 2006;.…”

“…Since the EPD occurrence shows a large variability both in small-and large-longitudinal scales (e.g., Kil & Heelis, 1998a;Kil et al, 2009;Martinis et al, 2021;Singh et al, 1997;Stolle et al, 2008;Tsunoda et al, 2018;Tsunoda & White, 1981), predicting EPD occurrence becomes even more challenging. Now, it is fairly well understood that missing understanding of the spatio-temporal behavior of EPDs, that is, growth, zonal movement and decay of EPDs, along with the paucity of continuous measurements of ionospheric parameters is the cause for the challenge in predicting the day-to-day occurrence variability of EPDs (e.g., Das et al, 2021;Hysell et al, 2021;Li et al, 2021;Patra & Das, 2023).…”