Once (but not twice) upon a time: Narrative inoculation against conjunction errors indirectly reduces conspiracy beliefs and improves truth discernment

Abstract

Psychological inoculation has proven effective at reducing susceptibility to misinformation. We present a novel storytelling approach to inoculation against susceptibility to the conjunction fallacy (d meta-analysis = 0.82), a known cognitive predictor of conspiracy beliefs. In Study 1 (Pilot; N = 161), a narrative inoculation (vs. control) reduced susceptibility to conjunction errors, and in turn, conspiracy beliefs regarding government malfeasance. In Study 2 (main experiment; N = 141; pre-registered), two separate narrative inoculations (vs. control) directly reduced susceptibility to conjunction errors, and indirectly reduced conspiracy beliefs regarding extra-terrestrial cover-ups. In addition, the inoculation messages improved detection of both real and fake news ('truth discernment'). We discuss theoretical and practical implications, including the use of inoculation to induce critical thinking styles, and tailoring inoculations that may suit storytelling mediums.

Psychological Inoculation for Credibility Assessment, Sharing Intention, and Discernment of Misinformation: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

“…Major misinformation themes included health (k=15) and climate change (k=7), the mean participant age distribution was 18 to 48 years, and most studies were conducted in the United States (k=28). A total of 31 studies reported misinformation credibility assessment [ 7 , 13 , 14 , 16 , 22 - 24 , 26 - 28 , 39 - 48 ], 26 reported real information credibility assessment [ 1 , 7 , 14 - 16 , 22 - 24 , 27 , 41 - 43 , 49 - 54 ], 12 reported credibility discernment [ 7 , 23 , 24 , 27 , 41 ], 12 reported misinformation sharing intention [ 7 , 13 , 23 , 40 , 45 , 50 ], 11 reported real information sharing intention [ 7 , 23 , 51 , 55 ], and 8 studies reported sharing discernment [ 7 , 23 ].…”

“…Articles published by the same author in the same year are distinguished by a and b . Different studies in the same article are distinguished by an underscore and the numbers 1 to 6 [ 1 , 7 , 14 - 16 , 22 - 24 , 27 , 41 - 43 , 49 - 54 ]. SMD: standardized mean difference.…”

“… Forest plot for the effects of psychological inoculation on credibility discernment (k=12). Different studies in the same article are distinguished by an underscore and the numbers 1 to 6 [ 7 , 23 , 24 , 27 , 41 ]. SMD: standardized mean difference.…”

The Radicalisation Spectrum: How an Individual’s Susceptibility to Influence – Not Ideology – Incubates Radicalisation Towards Non-violent and Violent Extremism

“…This bias "occurs when the likelihood of two independent events occurring together is incorrectly assumed to be higher than the likelihood of the events occurring alone. " 58 That extremist influencers may be able to induce cognitive overload to thwart counter narratives is an area of study that is worthy of further exploration. While it is known that "established prejudices and ideological beliefs" along with a human tendency to "passively believe… information that follows existing preconceptions" results in people "accepting information uncritically" 59 less scholarship has focused on the permissive environments extremist influencers and their cascades cultivate.…”

Editorial—The truth is out there: The psychology of conspiracy theories and how to counter them

“…Although the thought‐listing exercise was not effective on its own, the conjunction fallacy training did significantly reduce belief in conspiracy theories. Similarly, Biddlestone et al (2022) used a novel narrative inoculation message to immunize people against the conjunction fallacy beforehand. Across two studies, the authors found that the process of psychological inoculation reduced people's belief in conspiracy theories indirectly through the fact that people made far fewer conjunction errors.…”