One country, two populist parties: Voting patterns of the 2018 Italian elections and their determinants

Abstract

The results of the elections have increasingly brought to the forefront the long‐standing issue of lagging regions—also labelled as “places that don't matter”—since they had a great influence on the electoral outcomes. In this paper, we focus on the municipal results of the Italian senate elections, held in March 2018. Italy is a peculiar country where two non‐traditional parties, namely “Lega” and “Movimento 5 Stelle” (M5S), ended up forming the government coalition running until August 2019 and competing for different shades of populism. Our aim is to investigate the regional characteristics which underlie the local preferences for the two non‐mainstream parties. First, we find that the spatial distribution of their votes is associated with territorial socio‐economic and institutional differences, and hence that Lega and M5S are characterized by a different electoral base (e.g., Lega capitalized its traditional support in the North, while M5S won especially in the South). Second, beyond these expected regional patterns, our evidence also highlights a sharp urban‐rural contrast.

Political Neglect and Support for the Radical Right: The Case of Rural Portugal

“…A more recent strand of research emphasizes the enduring geographical disparities in support for the radical right within countries, both in Europe and globally, with the urban-rural divide gaining relevance in multiple contexts. Comparative research examining the likelihood of supporting a radical right party identifies the urban-rural cleavage as a pivotal factor (Faggian et al 2021;Rickardsson 2021;Stockemer 2017;Marks et al 2020;Mamonova and Franquesa 2020), often in conjunction with other demographic factors like education (Abou-Chadi & Hix, 2021).…”

“…Voters experiencing economic difficulties can become more open to adhering to the policy package of proposed solutions offered by the radical right, namely regarding issues such as immigration and trade imbalances (Harteveld et al, 2022, p. 444). This mechanism seems to be at play in instances where investment in the welfare state at the local level is low (Faggian et al, 2021), where voters experience acute subjective social decline compared to previous generations (Feischmidt & Szombati, 2017), and particularly when economic deprivation co-occurs with significant immigration (Bolet 2023).…”

Psychological bases of anti‐immigration attitudes among populist voters

“…It has made its themes typically associated with a leftwing ideology by proposing a redistribution of wealth or social support systems such as basic income. Its message has resonated among the young educated unemployed in Southern Italy (Faggian et al, 2021).…”

“…The Italian populist right‐wing pressed traditional conservative issues as reducing taxation, along with a strong emphasis on security and immigration control. This message resonated particularly in the rich Northern Italian regions and among small‐business owners and trades people (Faggian et al, 2021). The five‐star movement, on the other hand, has been followed above all in the less economically thriving regions of southern Italy.…”

“…It has made its themes typically associated with a left‐wing ideology by proposing a redistribution of wealth or social support systems such as basic income. Its message has resonated among the young educated unemployed in Southern Italy (Faggian et al, 2021). For these reasons, the five‐star movement has been likened to other left‐wing populist movements such as the Spanish Podemos or the Greek Syriza (e.g., Font et al, 2021).…”