One Thing Leads to Another: Making Sense of East Asia’s Repeated Tensions

Chong, Ja Ian; Hall, Todd H.

doi:10.1080/14799855.2017.1284795

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…The population expects its leaders to punish a lingering aggressor and deter it from continuing attacks (Vasquez, 2009: 217–218). Such a demand increases during times of crisis when disruptions of ordinary life are at their peak and in the public spotlight (Chong and Hall, 2017: 26; Fearon, 1994: 577). When a population has been under attack prior to a crisis, it may consider crisis violence a necessary bad, a “last push,” to bring about a change.…”

Section: Research On Crisis Escalation and Precrisis Hostilitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precrisis military hostility and escalation in international crises

Levin-Banchik

2020

Conflict Management and Peace Science

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Why do some international crises escalate into violence while others do not? I argue that an understanding of crisis behavior necessitates awareness of the processes preceding a crisis and propose two mechanisms that link precrisis hostility with crisis violence. The population fatigue mechanism suggests that precrisis hostility interrupts the everyday life of a population, strengthening its demand for a harsher response. If leaders behave with restraint during a crisis and after the crisis hostilities resume, leaders risk facing greater dissatisfaction from their now even more fatigued population. The baseline for resolve mechanism suggests that if states are actively hostile before a crisis, they must maintain hostility during a crisis to credibly demonstrate resolve. Findings on international crises between 1918 and 2010 support the interphase relationship: a crisis escalation is significantly more likely after a hostile precrisis period. The behavior of opponents can indicate how crises might unfold even before they begin.

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Section: Research On Crisis Escalation and Precrisis Hostilitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precrisis military hostility and escalation in international crises

Levin-Banchik

2020

Conflict Management and Peace Science

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“…South Vietnam and China subsequently issued official declarations incorporating the Paracels as sovereign territory in 1956 and 1958 respectively (Chong and Hall, 2017).…”

Section: Paracel Islandsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Entitlement to Islands, Rocks and Low – Tide Elevations in the South China Sea: Geoeconomics versus Rule of Law

Salako¹

2018

ILR

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Entitlement to islands, rocks and low-tide elevations in the South China Sea is based either on historical claims under customary international law or on maritime claims under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea 1982 (UNCLOS). China's 'entitlement' to islands, rocks and low-tide elevations in the South China Sea is based on historical claims spanning over two thousand years. However, there are other littoral claimants such as Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietman and Japan, and what is more, the United States is implicated in Japan's claim for historical and other reasons. The objects of this article are to evaluate the rule of law and geoeconomics in claims to islands, rocks and low-tide elevations in the South China Sea, especially the Philippines-China arbitration; to show that the historical and maritime claims intersect and collide; to evaluate the United States' involvement and the Thucydides trap; and to articulate the reasons why geoeconomics should guide not only the interpretation of UNCLOS but also state responses in terms of joint development and unilateral strategies.

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One Thing Leads to Another: Making Sense of East Asia’s Repeated Tensions

Cited by 2 publications

References 6 publications

Precrisis military hostility and escalation in international crises

Precrisis military hostility and escalation in international crises

Entitlement to Islands, Rocks and Low – Tide Elevations in the South China Sea: Geoeconomics versus Rule of Law

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