One-Third of Global Population at Cancer Risk due to Elevated Volatile Organic Compounds Levels

Abstract

Outdoor air pollution, particularly volatile organic compounds (VOCs), significantly contributes to the global health burden. Previous analyses of VOC exposure have been confined to regional and national scales, limiting global health burden assessments. Our study employed a global chemistry-climate model to simulate VOC distributions from 2000 to 2019 and estimated the associated cancer risks. Our findings revealed a 10.2% increase in global VOC emissions between 2000 and 2019, with significant increases in China, the Rest of Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa, but decreases in the U.S and Europe due to transportation and residential sectors reductions. Approximately 36.4-39.7% of the global population was exposed to unhealthy VOC levels, with an extremely high percentage identified in China (82.8-84.3%) versus considerably lower percentage in Europe (1.7-5.8%). The lifetime cancer burden attributable to carcinogenic VOCs exposure was estimated at 0.60 [95% confidence interval (95CI): 0.40-0.81] to 0.85 [95CI: 0.56-1.14] million individuals globally. Open agricultural burning in less-developed regions escalated the associated respiratory risks and cancer burdens. We noted significant disparities in cancer burdens between high- and low-middle-income countries, stemming from disproportionate population expansions and VOC emissions. This finding highlights the amplified health disparity across different income nations, critical for persistently addressing environmental injustice associated with air pollution exposure.