Opening-Up Trajectories and Economic Recovery: Lessons after the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

This article analyses the reopening process of countries in Europe and Central Asia after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and provides evidence on the effects of different reopening trajectories and their timing and speed on economic recovery. The analysis indicates that countries that adopted a gradual, staged reopening experienced stronger economic recovery compared with the countries that rushed into lifting the restrictive measures before the pandemic was under control. Postponing lifting the restrictions until after the pandemic’s peak was reached has a positive impact on economic activity. Governance also matters: a higher level of trust in government is associated with increased economic activity among countries that carried out a gradual reopening process. There is also suggestive evidence that providing people objective data on the progress of the pandemic may speed up the recovery process. (JEL codes: D14, E21, and G51).

Explaining the Evolution of Job Tenure in Europe, 1995–2020

“…The probability of having a short-term job 4 We replicated the analysis presented in this paper on a sample that excludes data from the 2020 EU-LFS. Our concern was that the COVID-19 pandemic and the non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented by EU governments had such a profound impact on the EU economies and labor markets that 2020 could be an outlier in tenure trends and other dimensions we study in this paper (see Demirguc-Kunt et al 2021). However, the results of these estimations are qualitatively very similar to the results based on the 1995 -2020 sample.…”

Explaining the Evolution of Job Tenure in Europe, 1995–2020

“…4 We replicated the analysis presented in this paper on a sample that excludes data from the 2020 EU-LFS. Our concern was that the COVID19 pandemic and the non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented by EU governments had such a profound impact on the EU economies and labor markets that 2020 could be an outlier in tenure trends and other dimensions we study in this paper (see Demirguc-Kunt et al 2021). However, the results of these estimations are qualitatively very similar to the results based on the 1995 -2020 sample.…”

The global evolution of mental health problems during the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies

“…However, as of June 2020, the results showed a decrease in mental health disorders. This month also coincides with the end of the first wave in North America and Europe, with an initial recovery of the global economy and with the lifting of isolation and containment measures related to the pandemic ( Bailey et al, 2021 ; Demirgüç-Kunt et al, 2021 ; Ligo et al, 2021 ). Despite this decrease, the prevalence of mental health problems remains higher during the pandemic compared to pre-pandemic times ( Prati and Mancini, 2021 ; Robinson et al, 2022 ).…”