Operating risk considerations in wind integrated power systems

Abstract

Wind is perceived to be the most suitable renewable resource for bulk power generation, and wind power installations are rapidly growing all over the world. The variable nature of wind power is however causing increased challenges in reliable system operation. System operators face considerable difficulties in determining appropriate unit commitment, reserve requirements and in making dispatch decisions to meet anticipated load with minimum operating risk and cost when integrating wind power. There is a need for suitable techniques that evaluate operating risks associated with wind power estimation, and quantify operating reliability associated with unit commitment and operating reserves while incorporating the uncertainties of wind variation. This paper presents operating risk considerations from two perspectives: the wind power commitment risk from the perspective of the wind farm owner, and the unit commitment risk from the perspective of the power system operator. The wind power model for a short future time is created using conditional probability approach based upon knowledge of the initial condition. The presented methods also incorporate the cross correlation of wind speeds between multiple wind farms, and the impacts are illustrated with examples using the IEEE Reliability Test System.

Cost Analysis Method for Estimating Dynamic Reserve Considering Uncertainties in Supply and Demand

“…A new type of unit commitment, which considers the interruptible load as a reserve to handle the increased uncertainty with wind power, is also suggested in [18]. Both [19,20] also consider wind power generation as an operating risk and propose an algorithm based on non-parametric kernel density estimation and a model for a short-term future forecasting using a conditional probability approach to reduce the risk. In [21,22], wind power uncertainty is modeled as Gaussian distribution and finite-state Markove chain, respectively.…”