Operational Dynamics of Boko Haram's Terrorist Campaign Following Leadership Succession

Regens, James L.; Mould, Nick; Vernon, E; Montgomery, Amanda

doi:10.1111/ssqu.12251

Cited by 11 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Usually, victims of Boko Haram attacks include law enforcement agents, religious and political figures, essential infrastructures, and financial institutions and other business establishments. The strategic objectives of these attacks are to cast distrust of the Government in the minds of the people by making them feel vulnerable and unprotected by the Government (Regens, Mould, Vernon, & Montgomery, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forced Displacement and the Plight of Internally Displaced Persons in Northeast Nigeria

Gwadabe

Salleh

Ahmad

et al. 2018

HSSR

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Since the end of the Cold War, the phenomenon of forced displacement gained more global attention. Forced displacement involves the involuntary movement of people from their habitual place of residence to a location within their country of nationality; or across an internationally recognised border. This situation in most cases exposes the displaced people to some vulnerabilities. Among other classes of displaced people, the most notable groups of concern are refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs). In contemporary time, conflict is identified to be the primary cause of forced displacement. Since 2009, the Boko Haram insurgency and the counter-insurgency by the Nigerian security forces turned northeast Nigeria into a conflict zone. The crisis has forced more than 2 million people to flee for safety within Nigeria as internally displaced persons (IDPs); while many crossed the border into countries neighbouring Nigeria from the Lake Chad region as refugees. This paper explored and discussed the suffering of the people internally displaced by Boko Haram conflict from the framework of forced displacement. It is found that, the IDPs in Nigeria suffered from multifaceted problems, ranging from the issues of inadequate life-saving assistance, protection related crisis, and the unclear prospect of achieving durable solutions. Moreover, the lack of a clear national policy, institutional, and legal frameworks in addressing internal displacement in Nigeria is found to be the prime cause of the intensification of the plight of IDPs. Thus, it is recommended that, there should be a legally backed national policy on IDPs, which should include punitive measures for corrupt humanitarian officers. Also, provision should be made for effective coordination among national humanitarian agencies. Lastly, a clear rule of engagement between the Government and the international humanitarian agencies should be clearly defined.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forced Displacement and the Plight of Internally Displaced Persons in Northeast Nigeria

Gwadabe

Salleh

Ahmad

et al. 2018

HSSR

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“…Several studies have shown that religious groups and institutions are sectors of society that have been negatively affected by the presence, actions and activities of the Boko Haram terrorist organization in the northeastern part of Nigeria and the greater Lake Chad region (Maiangwa et al 2012;Elden 2014;Onapajo and Usman 2015;Regens et al 2016). This is first because many of the radical clerics often use and interpret religious texts negatively, easily misleading and deceiving vulnerable persons into accepting their extremist views and teachings as the ultimate path to salvation (Maza et al 2020).…”

Section: What Are the Efforts Of Faith-based Organizations In Counter-radicalization In Nigeria: The Boko Haram Challenge?mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Faith-Based Organizations in Counter-Radicalization in Nigeria: The Case of Boko Haram

2021

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This article examines the role of faith-based organizations (FBOs) in counter-radicalization in Nigeria, with emphasis on the Boko Haram terrorist group operating in northeast Nigeria and the greater Lake Chad region. A qualitative methodological approach is employed that makes use of primary and secondary documents, key informant and stakeholder interviews, and focus group discussions with critical religious actors and organizations. The findings of the article suggest that FBOs play a critical role in the disengagement and deradicalization process of countering the ideological and radical messages of Boko Haram. However, challenges such as the lack of effective stakeholder involvement in the various initiatives by the state in counterterrorism, fear of reprisal and attacks, lack of unison by various FBOs and clerics in countering these negative messages, and the inability of relevant stakeholders in addressing structural factors such as poverty, social and economic exclusion, and unemployment that give rise to radicalization amongst other challenges, have impeded the effectiveness of the FBO sector in its counter-radicalization efforts in Nigeria. To address these challenges, the article proposes a bottom-up approach to counterterrorism that provides room for the multi-sectoral involvement of major stakeholders, especially FBOs, to complement pre-existing initiatives and other measures to counter the negative weaponization of religion by radical and rogue clerics, and also to prevent Boko Haram from expanding its frontiers.

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“…Because countering terrorism is one of the major issues facing the intelligence community, this study employs information about real‐world events, rather than hypothetical scenarios, to illustrate the challenges associated with predicting future events using information derived from a collection of historical observations (Regens and Mould, ; Regens et al., , ). Specifically, we focus on predicting the actual operational dynamics of the Islamic State of Iraq and al‐Sham, commonly called ISIS ( ad‐Dawlah al‐Islmiyah ) or IS.…”

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confidence: 99%

Predicting Known Terrorist Event Outcomes and the Illusion of Self‐Assessed Expertise*

Regens

Mould²,

Foster³

2019

Social Science Quarterly

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Objective This study focuses on the influence of self‐assessed expertise on forecasting accuracy for incomplete information. We investigate this ability in individuals using a series of indicators of terrorist behaviors. Method An instrument containing incomplete data on terrorist attacks was provided to participants. Participants were instructed to predict missing values. The accuracy of approximately 1,900 forecasts was determined. The influence of self‐identified statistical ability, terrorism familiarity, and an empirical measure of pattern recognition ability on accuracy was investigated. Results The results of the experiment indicate that neither self‐assessed statistical ability nor terrorism familiarity have a significant influence on forecast accuracy. Interestingly, the empirical estimate of pattern recognition ability also had no appreciable effect on accuracy. Conclusion This study indicates that statistical ability and terrorism familiarity have little effect on forecast accuracy. Innate pattern recognition ability also showed no significant relationship with accuracy. These findings suggest that self‐identified expertise should initially be viewed with some level of skepticism.

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Operational Dynamics of Boko Haram's Terrorist Campaign Following Leadership Succession

Cited by 11 publications

References 9 publications

Forced Displacement and the Plight of Internally Displaced Persons in Northeast Nigeria

Forced Displacement and the Plight of Internally Displaced Persons in Northeast Nigeria

The Role of Faith-Based Organizations in Counter-Radicalization in Nigeria: The Case of Boko Haram

Predicting Known Terrorist Event Outcomes and the Illusion of Self‐Assessed Expertise*

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