Operational Modeling Capacity in European Seas—An EuroGOOS Perspective and Recommendations for Improvement

Capet, Arthur; Fernández, Vicente; She, Jun; Dabrowski, Tomasz; Umgiesser, Georg; Staneva, Joanna; Mészáros, Lőrinc; Campuzano, Francisco; Ursella, Laura; Nolan, Glenn; Serafy, Ghada El

doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.00129

Cited by 24 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…This multi-model assessment focused on the Storm Gloria has allowed identifying the strengths and limitations of the present operational capability in the Spanish Mediterranean coast to forecast an extreme coastal event. Apart from the classical recipes needed for the evolution of operational ocean model systems (i.e., increasing resolution to simulate finer scales, atmospheric forcing improving, introducing more-advanced data assimilation methods with inclusion of coastal and on-shelf observations), which are usually taken into account in service evolution roadmaps [see Le Traon et al (2019) and Capet et al (2020) for the CMEMS evolution guidelines and the EuroGOOS perspectives for improvement of operational ocean modeling capacity in Europe], the present study has pointed out some shortcomings in the current existing services that should be considered to make of them operational tools adequate to forecast extreme coastal events such as the Storm Gloria.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The sustained availability of CMEMS global and regional scale core products has fostered the development of "downstream" services devoted to coastal monitoring and forecasting. Capet et al (2020) in their review of the current European capacity on operational marine and coastal modeling systems, map 49 organizations around Europe delivering 104 operational model systems simulating mostly hydrodynamics, biogeochemistry and sea waves at regional and coastal scales, in some cases on overlapping areas. In this context, with different model products available in some specific coastal areas, the opportunity and the need arise to compare model solutions, thus identifying the strengths and shortcomings of each model system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluation of the Operational CMEMS and Coastal Downstream Ocean Forecasting Services During the Storm Gloria (January 2020)

et al. 2021

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Storm Gloria was the 10th named storm in Europe for the 2019–2020 winter season, and it severely affected Spain and France. This powerful storm represents an excellent study case to analyze the capabilities of the different ocean model systems available in the Spanish Mediterranean coasts to simulate extreme events, as well as to assess their suitability to enhance preparedness in maritime disasters with high impacts on coastal areas. Five different operational ocean forecasting services able to predict the storm-induced ocean circulation are evaluated. Three of the systems are delivered by the Copernicus Marine Service (hereafter CMEMS): the CMEMS global scale solution (GLO-1/12°), the specific Mediterranean basin scale one (MED-1/24°), and the regional solution for the Atlantic façade (IBI-1/36°), which includes also part of the western Mediterranean. These CMEMS core products are complemented with two higher resolution models focused on more limited areas, which provide operational forecasts for coastal applications: the WMOP system developed at the Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System (SOCIB) with a horizontal resolution of roughly 2 km and the Puertos del Estado (PdE) SAMOA systems with a 350-m resolution that cover the coastal domains of the Spanish Port Authorities of Barcelona, Tarragona, Castellón and Almeria. Both the WMOP and SAMOA models are nested in CMEMS regional systems (MED and IBI, respectively) and constitute good examples of coastal-scale-oriented CMEMS downstream services. The skill of these five ocean models in reproducing the surface dynamics in the area during Gloria is evaluated using met-ocean in situ measurements from numerous buoys (moored in coastal and open waters) and coastal meteorological stations as a reference to track the effects of the storm in essential ocean variables such as surface current, water temperature, and salinity throughout January 2020. Furthermore, modeled surface dynamics are validated against hourly surface current fields from the two high-frequency radar systems available in the zone (the SOCIB HF-Radar system covering the eastern part of the Ibiza Channel and the PdE one at Tarragona, which covers the Ebro Delta, one of the coastal areas most impacted by Gloria). The results assess the performance of the dynamical downscaling at two different levels: first, within the own CMEMS service (with their regional products, as enhanced solutions with respect to the global one) and second in the coastal down-streaming service side (with very high-resolution models reaching coastal scales). This multi-model study case focused on Storm Gloria has allowed to identify some strengths and limitations of the systems currently in operations, and it can help outlining future model service upgrades aimed at better forecasting extreme coastal events.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the Operational CMEMS and Coastal Downstream Ocean Forecasting Services During the Storm Gloria (January 2020)

et al. 2021

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“…CMEMS operational ocean systems are routinely used as forcing for more local, downscaled ocean operational systems. An overview of the current European capacity in terms of operational modeling of marine and coastal systems was recently presented in Capet et al (2020) and indicated that about half of the reported regional / local ocean modeling systems rely on CMEMS models for open boundary conditions. A review of storm surge modeling for Europe is provided in Umgiesser et al (2020), with several systems also part of CMEMS or using CMEMS as boundary conditions.…”

Section: Downscaling Copernicus Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

European Copernicus Services to Inform on Sea-Level Rise Adaptation: Current Status and Perspectives

et al. 2021

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Sea-level rise is a direct consequence of climate change. Primarily due to ocean thermal expansion and transfer from land ice (glaciers, ice sheets) to the ocean, sea-level rise is therefore an integrated indicator of climate change. Coastal zones and communities are expected to be increasingly threatened by sea level changes, with various adverse and widespread impacts. The European Union’s Earth Observation Programmed, Copernicus, monitors our planet and its environment, for the ultimate benefit of society. This includes the monitoring of sea level changes and the provision of ancillary fields needed to assess sea-level rise coastal risks, to guide adaptation and to support related policies and directives. Copernicus is organized with a space component, including dedicated Earth Observation satellites (Sentinel missions), and services, which transform the wealth of satellite, in situ and integrated numerical model information into added-value datasets and information usable by scientists, managers and decision-makers, and the wider public. Here, an overview of the Copernicus products and services to inform on sea level rise adaptation is provided. Perspectives from Copernicus services on future evolutions to better inform on coastal sea level rise, associated risks, and support adaptation are also discussed.

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“…The latest review of the current European capacity in terms of operational marine and coastal modeling systems [22] maps the organizations and the operational model systems at regional and coastal scales across Europe and points out the sustained availability of CMEMS global and regional scale core products as a positive driver to favor proliferation of "downstream" services devoted to coastal monitoring and forecasting. Likewise, this review highlights the availability of different operational ocean models, covering in some cases overlapped areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Indeed, Matulka et al [24] inform that the approaches followed to include freshwater inputs in each operational forecast system, shown in Figure 1, vary from one model set-up to another, using: (1) data derived from daily observations taken in river flow stations (i.e., the MeteoGalicia MTG-ROMS set-up and the CMEMS IBI one, but this one using observations only for some of the major rivers), (2) daily freshwater discharges at river mouths produced by hydrological models (this is the case for IBI, especially for its five-days-ahead forecast run), (3) data derived from river discharge monthly climatology (a very common approach, fully or partially used in IBI, The MyCoast multi-model intercomparison exercise is further proof of the necessity to improve coastal freshwater signals in operational ocean models. This need, already identified within the operational oceanographic community [22], includes improved standardized freshwater river inputs (considering not only flow rates but also particulate and dissolved matter key for biogeochemical processes) and foresees, as a longer-term objective, to include connection and coupling with land hydrology models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

River Freshwater Contribution in Operational Ocean Models along the European Atlantic Façade: Impact of a New River Discharge Forcing Data on the CMEMS IBI Regional Model Solution

Sotillo

Campuzano

Guihou

et al. 2021

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River freshwater contribution in the European Atlantic margin and its influence on the sea salinity field are analyzed. The impacts of using a new river discharge database as part of the freshwater forcing in a regional ocean model are assessed. Ocean model scenarios, based on the CMEMS (Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service) operational IBI-MFC (Iberia Biscay Ireland Monitoring Forecasting Centre) model set‑up, are run to test different (observed, modeled and climatological) river and coastal freshwater forcing configurations throughout 2018. The modelled salinity fields are validated, using as a reference all known available in-situ observational data sources. The IBI model application is proven to adequately simulate the regional salinity, and the scenarios showcase the effects of varying imposed river outflows. Some model improvement is achieved using the new forcing (i.e., better capture of salinity variability and more realistic simulation of baroclinic frontal structures linked to coastal and river freshwater buoyancy plumes). Major impacts are identified in areas with bigger river discharges (i.e., the French shelf or the northwestern Iberian coast). Instead, the Portuguese shelf or the Gulf of Cadiz are less impacted by changes in the imposed river inflows, and other dynamical factors in these areas play a major role in the configuration of the regional salinity.

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Operational Modeling Capacity in European Seas—An EuroGOOS Perspective and Recommendations for Improvement

Cited by 24 publications

References 39 publications

Evaluation of the Operational CMEMS and Coastal Downstream Ocean Forecasting Services During the Storm Gloria (January 2020)

Evaluation of the Operational CMEMS and Coastal Downstream Ocean Forecasting Services During the Storm Gloria (January 2020)

European Copernicus Services to Inform on Sea-Level Rise Adaptation: Current Status and Perspectives

River Freshwater Contribution in Operational Ocean Models along the European Atlantic Façade: Impact of a New River Discharge Forcing Data on the CMEMS IBI Regional Model Solution

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