Operational Monitoring of the Evolution of Rainy Season Over Florida

Abstract

Florida has a distinct wet season, which serves the annual water needs of the State and beyond. Our earlier studies have indicated that in addition to the seasonal rainfall anomalies, the variations of the length of the season also contribute significantly to variability of the wet season over Florida. Furthermore, the variations of the onset date of the rainy season relate significantly to the seasonal anomalies of length of the season and rainfall. In this study, we have used the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission version 6 (IMERG) rainfall dataset to monitor the rainy season over the five Water Management Districts (WMDs) of Florida for 2021. This effort was complimented by analyzing and verifying the variations of the rainy season over the preceding 20 wet seasons from the IMERG datasets. IMERG produces rainfall datasets at various latencies, with the final product having a 3.5-month latency since the satellite measurements of radiance are made. However, in this study, we find that an intermediate 12-h latency product of rainfall analysis from IMERG is reasonable to use for near real-time monitoring of the wet season over Florida. The operational monitoring of the 2021 wet season using the 12-h latency dataset from IMERG was also supplemented with the extended weather 6- to 10-day and 8- to 14-day forecasts of precipitation probability issued by the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Our study suggests that the current methodology of monitoring the onset date variations of the rainy season provides a viable alternative to assess and anticipate the seasonal variations amidst the moderate to insignificant weather and climate prediction skill of the numerical forecast models of the wet season of Florida.

Examination of upstream supply chain and logistics issues in the US logging industry

“…A peculiar characteristic of forestry operations is the inherent seasonality owing to weather‐related uncertainties (Geisler et al, 2016; Vaughan et al, 2022). Seasonal precipitation prevents logging machinery and trucks from harvesting timber (Misra et al, 2022). As the harvesting time is limited, reliable logistics support is needed during the available periods to ensure a timely and even supply of timber to the sawmills (Kuloglu et al, 2019).…”

“…The literature on log trucking identifies similar issues. Yet, there exist problems peculiar to log truck driving, such as driving on muddy terrains (Palander et al, 2021), weather-dependent hauling (Misra et al, 2022), and limited backhauling opportunities (Carlsson & Rönnqvist, 2007). Furthermore, upstream timber supply chain issues go well beyond log truck driver shortage, encompassing a wide range of industry-specific, and interconnected problems that affect carrier selection decisions of logging companies, including parcellation of the timberland (Ko & He, 2011), the quota system (Conrad IV et al, 2018b), high sawmill turnaround times (Barrett, 2001), insufficient supply chain coordination, and poor truck scheduling policies (Rönnqvist et al, 2015).…”

Gap-free 16-year (2005–2020) sub-diurnal surface meteorological observations across Florida

“…The elevation levels in Florida range from sea level to about 105 m above sea level 10 . Due to its peninsular geography in subtropical latitudes and interactions with relatively warm oceans, Florida has a unique climate to the rest of the United States 11 , 12 . Its wet season is heavily interconnected with fresh water availability and ecosystem functionality, and as population growth continues throughout the state, there is the further strain placed on its natural resources 11 .…”

“…In addition, there are two precipitation-only data sources. Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG) data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) provides 30-minute precipitation data at a 10 km resolution over the period June 2000-present 12 . The second source, from the NCDC, offers 15-minute precipitation observations from stations that are sparsely located (31 stations throughout Florida) 27 .…”